TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152484
Played Sep 18Finished
Tomas Molin
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171113911116115
Karel Baros
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:15 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 95 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Karel Baros at 56.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 7–5 Karel Baros Karel Baros has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Baros
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Molin
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1477 vs Baros 1502
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 20% vs Baros 40%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 20% vs Baros 50%
Baros
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin +1 · Baros +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Baros) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 2.10 / Baros 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Baros)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13152484
Molin2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Baros1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 57 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it78% 39 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolin7wins
AwayBaros3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolin80%4 of 5
AwayBaros40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S2Molin6Baros4n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S3Molin6Baros4n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S4Molin4Baros4n = 8split evenly
S5Molin3Baros1n = 4Molin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolinBarosM − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.038.6+3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 288 vs 149 / 27351.7%54.6%149 / 288 vs 149 / 273Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosMolin 2.10/Baros 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 16:10T. Molin50131191162K. Baros50156117113
LSep 2 · 15:15T. Molin228770K. Baros331111113
WAug 19 · 15:45T. Molin49137117113K. Baros49111191172
WJul 15 · 16:50T. Molin49111188113K. Baros3462111142
WJul 15 · 15:10T. Molin43101111113K. Baros38129891
LJul 2 · 15:45T. Molin391183171K. Baros4431111193
WJun 23 · 15:15T. Molin46711116113K. Baros3711331192
WFeb 20 · 19:45T. Molin4381113113K. Baros381181181
WFeb 14 · 07:45T. Molin331111113K. Baros259790
WFeb 6 · 19:15T. Molin46121211113K. Baros381014771
T. Molin10
WSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113LSep 18 · 14:15M. Moravec1.3381114113T. Molin3.251181281LSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070LSep 17 · 16:10T. Molin2.38131191162K. Baros1.53156117113LSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780LSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870LSep 7 · 21:10A. Kanak1.6781311153T. Molin2.1011114131WSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990LSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak1.9191115113T. Molin1.801181361LSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101
K. Baros10
WSep 18 · 16:55K. Baros2.50111111113M. Moravec1.50871351WSep 18 · 15:15K. Baros2.6311128113M. Moravec1.449101181LSep 18 · 13:45A. Cizek1.801112113K. Baros1.9141030LSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 16:10T. Molin2.38131191162K. Baros1.53156117113LSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160LSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852
Upcoming Matches
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