TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152504
Played Sep 18Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210113––––
Karel Baros
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Ales Cizek at 61.8%
51 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 4–1 Karel Baros Karel Baros has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Cizek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1547 vs Baros 1504
Cizek
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Baros -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.80 / Baros 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cizek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13152504
Cizek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Baros1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 18 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back40% 8 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCizek4wins
AwayBaros1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderCizek leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBaros25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Baros4n = 5Baros took 4 of 5
S2Cizek3Baros2n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
S3Cizek4Baros1n = 5Cizek took 4 of 5
S4Cizek3Baros1n = 4Cizek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricCizekBarosC − BBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.537.2+3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 478 vs 148 / 27247.5%54.4%227 / 478 vs 148 / 272Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.80/Baros 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek365811121K. Baros4211116143
WMay 26 · 17:45A. Cizek45911212113K. Baros47119111062
WMay 21 · 21:15A. Cizek3851111113K. Baros26117261
WMay 21 · 19:10A. Cizek4311911123K. Baros347116101
A. Cizek10
LSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113WSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070LSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780LSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 16 · 20:38D. Stusek1.574111116113A. Cizek2.2511781832WSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123LSep 16 · 19:15A. Cizek2.20136112102A. Kanak1.611111811123LSep 16 · 17:45D. Stusek1.61381111113A. Cizek2.2011119392LSep 8 · 20:45A. Cizek1.9111117492J. Lisztwan1.80581111113
K. Baros10
LSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151WSep 17 · 16:10T. Molin2.38131191162K. Baros1.53156117113LSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160LSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661LSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741
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