TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149332
Played Sep 18Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118611911––
Tomas Krenek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:01 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 69–67 Tomas Krenek Tomas Krenek has won 67 of their 136 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-67 in 136
Benes
Wrong
gap of 2 in 136, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1657 vs Krenek 1648
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 100% vs Krenek 60%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 90% vs Krenek 70%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +7 · Krenek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.73 / Krenek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13149332
Benes1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 170 of 299
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it75% 113 of 150
Krenek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 100 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back40% 38 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayKrenek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes66.7%4 of 6
AwayKrenek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes6Krenek4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Benes5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes6Krenek4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes3Krenek4n = 7Krenek took 4 of 7
S5Benes2Krenek3n = 5Krenek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKrenekB − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.4+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 950 vs 473 / 93052.3%50.9%497 / 950 vs 473 / 930Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.73/Krenek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes259790T. Krenek331111113
WSep 3 · 07:45R. Benes361113123T. Krenek25411100
LSep 2 · 13:15R. Benes46131161152T. Krenek54159118113
LSep 2 · 10:15R. Benes4110119111T. Krenek4412811133
LSep 2 · 07:45R. Benes4611791182T. Krenek48811117113
WAug 31 · 09:40R. Benes4312911113T. Krenek381011981
WAug 31 · 07:40R. Benes381111163T. Krenek3299140
WAug 25 · 10:10R. Benes501110126113T. Krenek46412101192
WAug 25 · 06:40R. Benes50913116113T. Krenek46111181152
LAug 10 · 13:20R. Benes4611811792T. Krenek48911611113
R. Benes10
WSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113WSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113WSep 17 · 09:15R. Benes1.6211811113L. Slavik2.02511781WSep 17 · 08:15D. Jr1.731171271R. Benes2.0051114113WSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762WSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik1.83116761R. Benes1.8381111113WSep 14 · 13:15R. Benes2.00111011113J. Skvrna1.73812781LSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110WSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281WSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113
T. Krenek10
WSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070WSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 16:44K. Kleprlik1.441181491T. Krenek2.6361116113LSep 17 · 16:15T. Krenek1.534890K. Kleprlik2.381111113LSep 17 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.831111113T. Krenek1.836970WSep 17 · 14:15B. Mrowetz2.00511651T. Krenek1.7311911113WSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113LSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113
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