TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129331
Played Sep 14Finished
Radek Benes
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012117118––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:42 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 58.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 35–52 Jan Skvrna Radek Benes has won 35 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-52 in 87
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 17 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1562 vs Skvrna 1679
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Skvrna 70%
Skvrna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.00 / Skvrna 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13129331
Benes2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 57 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back26% 20 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Skvrna1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 225 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 156 of 210
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes6wins
AwaySkvrna4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes85.7%6 of 7
AwaySkvrna100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes7Skvrna3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S2Benes4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Benes5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes3Skvrna4n = 7Skvrna took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesSkvrnaB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.434.8+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 948 vs 469 / 80851.9%58%492 / 948 vs 469 / 808Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaBenes 2.00/Skvrna 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 11:10R. Benes4111811113J. Skvrna25711251
WAug 25 · 13:09R. Benes47115911113J. Skvrna4271111672
WAug 25 · 10:40R. Benes331111113J. Skvrna227870
LAug 11 · 07:40R. Benes179440J. Skvrna331111113
WAug 6 · 13:23R. Benes3711411113J. Skvrna34911681
WAug 6 · 10:40R. Benes51111658113J. Skvrna52714111192
LJul 28 · 13:10R. Benes35611991J. Skvrna4011711113
LJul 28 · 10:40R. Benes33116971J. Skvrna4071111113
WJul 23 · 11:45R. Benes331111113J. Skvrna227870
LJul 22 · 06:40R. Benes377911101J. Skvrna3811114123
R. Benes10
LSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110WSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281WSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113LSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113LSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133LSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771
J. Skvrna10
WSep 14 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9110101111102J. Skvrna1.80121296123LSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281WSep 14 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67111111113T. Kindl2.10313681LSep 13 · 13:05T. Krenek2.001111118123J. Skvrna1.71813611102WSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.0011811762J. Skvrna1.73711811113WSep 13 · 11:10E. Precek2.25841181J. Skvrna1.5711117113LSep 13 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.801061171T. Krenek1.9112114113LSep 10 · 17:20J. Skvrna1.538970J. Pribyl2.381111113WSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113WSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113
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