TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143307
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukas Slavik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611711611––
Radek Benes
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:02 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 59.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 3–6 Radek Benes Lukas Slavik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Benes
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1629 vs Benes 1592
Slavik
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 40% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 50% vs Benes 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Slavik) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slavik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 1.83 / Benes 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Slavik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13143307
Slavik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Benes1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSlavik3wins
AwayBenes6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderBenes leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik50%2 of 4
AwayBenes80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik4Benes5n = 9Benes took 5 of 9
S2Slavik5Benes4n = 9Slavik took 5 of 9
S3Slavik4Benes5n = 9Benes took 5 of 9
S4Slavik2Benes4n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricSlavikBenesS − BBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match33.836.3−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 221 vs 493 / 94952%52%115 / 221 vs 493 / 949Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlavikSlavik 1.83/Benes 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Slavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 16 · 05:40L. Slavik327111041R. Benes3911512113
LJul 13 · 05:45L. Slavik31119291R. Benes4181111113
LJul 11 · 12:45L. Slavik235990R. Benes331111113
WJul 11 · 10:45L. Slavik3961111113R. Benes30116671
WJul 9 · 08:45L. Slavik341112113R. Benes2241080
LJul 9 · 07:45L. Slavik39101111522R. Benes43126311113
LJul 6 · 15:45L. Slavik3711911242R. Benes48711811113
LJun 16 · 09:15L. Slavik30119100R. Benes361311123
WJun 16 · 06:10L. Slavik3911116113R. Benes35871191
L. Slavik10
WSep 17 · 06:45L. Slavik1.8371211133D. Jr1.8311107111LSep 16 · 09:04L. Slavik1.6751080M. Macurak2.101112113WSep 16 · 07:40M. Macurak1.83114111192L. Slavik1.83131117113WSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113LSep 16 · 06:10L. Slavik1.83911119102T. Kindl1.83118911123LSep 15 · 12:40T. Grmela1.801111118113L. Slavik1.9113691162WSep 15 · 12:15T. Krenek1.8310780L. Slavik1.831211113LSep 15 · 11:15L. Slavik1.7314780T. Grmela2.001611113LSep 15 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.671111133L. Slavik2.1045110WSep 10 · 13:20B. Mrowetz1.73117891L. Slavik2.0091111113
R. Benes10
WSep 14 · 13:15R. Benes2.00111011113J. Skvrna1.73812781LSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110WSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281WSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113LSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113LSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133
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