TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13135101
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Grmela
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113116119811116
Lukas Slavik
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:36 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Slavik to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Grmela above · Lukas Slavik below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 97 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Slavik at 56.7%
97 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Grmela 1–1 Lukas Slavik Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Grmela beat Slavik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grmela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Grmela 1587 vs Slavik 1626
Slavik
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grmela 40% vs Slavik 60%
Slavik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grmela 40% vs Slavik 60%
Slavik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grmela -1 · Slavik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Slavik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrmela 1.80 / Slavik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Slavik)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13135101
Grmela1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Slavik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 36 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back39% 16 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGrmela1wins
AwaySlavik1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGrmelaSlavikG − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.536.5+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrmelaSlavikBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 55 vs 113 / 21643.6%52.3%24 / 55 vs 113 / 216Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlavikGrmela 1.80/Slavik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Slavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grmela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 15 · 11:15T. Grmela381611113L. Slavik2914780
LSep 10 · 12:15T. Grmela4999111192L. Slavik44111165113
T. Grmela10
LSep 15 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.6712311113T. Grmela2.101011591WSep 15 · 11:15L. Slavik1.7314780T. Grmela2.001611113LSep 15 · 10:15T. Grmela2.25811111252T. Krenek1.57117814113WSep 15 · 09:13T. Krenek1.733119121T. Grmela2.0011711143LSep 15 · 08:15T. Grmela2.25149871T. Krenek1.57121111113WSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113WSep 15 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.5711119792T. Grmela2.25891111113LSep 10 · 12:49T. Grmela2.20117871J. Skvrna1.6131111113LSep 10 · 12:15T. Grmela2.0099111192L. Slavik1.73111165113LSep 10 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.6711811113T. Grmela2.10611541
L. Slavik10
WSep 15 · 12:15T. Krenek1.8310780L. Slavik1.831211113LSep 15 · 11:15L. Slavik1.7314780T. Grmela2.001611113LSep 15 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.671111133L. Slavik2.1045110WSep 10 · 13:20B. Mrowetz1.73117891L. Slavik2.0091111113WSep 10 · 12:15T. Grmela2.0099111192L. Slavik1.73111165113WSep 10 · 11:15L. Slavik3.50641111113J. Skvrna1.2811118272LSep 10 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.73116115113L. Slavik2.0071191162LSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113
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