TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13132133
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Grmela
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111171181214511
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Grmela above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 98 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 63.3%
98 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Grmela 2–3 Tomas Krenek Tomas Grmela has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Grmela beat Krenek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grmela 1589 vs Krenek 1609
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grmela 60% vs Krenek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grmela 50% vs Krenek 70%
Krenek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grmela +3 · Krenek -1
Grmela
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrmela 2.25 / Krenek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Krenek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13132133
Grmela2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 13 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Krenek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 111 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 76 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGrmela2wins
AwayKrenek3wins
Krenek leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrmelan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKrenek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grmela2Krenek3n = 5Krenek took 3 of 5
S2Grmela2Krenek3n = 5Krenek took 3 of 5
S3Grmela3Krenek2n = 5Grmela took 3 of 5
S4Grmela1Krenek2n = 3Krenek took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricGrmelaKrenekG − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.436.0−2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrmelaKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 52 vs 462 / 91644.2%50.4%23 / 52 vs 462 / 916Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekGrmela 2.25/Krenek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 15 · 09:13T. Grmela4311711143T. Krenek353119121
LAug 27 · 14:15T. Grmela34971261T. Krenek43111110113
WAug 21 · 17:10T. Grmela371114123T. Krenek30812100
LAug 21 · 14:15T. Grmela35911961T. Krenek3911611113
LAug 21 · 09:45T. Grmela187470T. Krenek331111113
T. Grmela10
WSep 15 · 11:15L. Slavik1.7314780T. Grmela2.001611113WSep 15 · 09:13T. Krenek1.733119121T. Grmela2.0011711143LSep 15 · 08:15T. Grmela2.25149871T. Krenek1.57121111113WSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113WSep 15 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.5711119792T. Grmela2.25891111113LSep 10 · 12:49T. Grmela2.20117871J. Skvrna1.6131111113LSep 10 · 12:15T. Grmela2.0099111192L. Slavik1.73111165113LSep 10 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.6711811113T. Grmela2.10611541WSep 10 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.57117591T. Grmela2.2581111113WSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123
T. Krenek10
WSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133LSep 15 · 09:13T. Krenek1.733119121T. Grmela2.0011711143WSep 15 · 08:15T. Grmela2.25149871T. Krenek1.57121111113WSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek1.9111116113J. Krupnik1.80641151WSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 13:05T. Krenek2.001111118123J. Skvrna1.71813611102LSep 13 · 12:10T. Krenek1.673960E. Precek2.101111113WSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.8311116962T. Krenek1.83711111113WSep 13 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.801061171T. Krenek1.9112114113WSep 13 · 09:10T. Krenek2.1011114113F. Chaloupka1.65471161
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.