TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149335
Played Sep 18Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210117––––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 57.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 15–11 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Krenek
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1648 vs Vitasek 1528
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Krenek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 60% vs Vitasek 30%
Krenek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek +2 · Vitasek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.57 / Vitasek 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Krenek)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13149335
Krenek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 113 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 77 of 103
Vitasek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 88 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek7wins
AwayVitasek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek80%4 of 5
AwayVitasek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Krenek7Vitasek3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S3Krenek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Krenek2Vitasek7n = 9Vitasek took 7 of 9
S5Krenek5Vitasek0n = 5Krenek took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekVitasekK − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.642.1+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 930 vs 298 / 62050.9%48.1%473 / 930 vs 298 / 620Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.57/Vitasek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 06:40T. Krenek6311111118123D. Vitasek57861320102
WJun 28 · 17:15T. Krenek561212119123D. Vitasek501014511102
WJun 28 · 15:10T. Krenek5512111110113D. Vitasek4614471292
LJun 9 · 18:10T. Krenek371212581D. Vitasek46101411113
WJun 3 · 08:10T. Krenek521110119113D. Vitasek4381271152
LJun 1 · 08:10T. Krenek34811961D. Vitasek4011711113
LMay 26 · 07:40T. Krenek35711981D. Vitasek3811511113
WApr 13 · 07:10T. Krenek471011211133D. Vitasek44127113112
WApr 8 · 07:40T. Krenek44111111113D. Vitasek36138691
WMar 7 · 18:15T. Krenek331111113D. Vitasek216870
T. Krenek10
WSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 16:44K. Kleprlik1.441181491T. Krenek2.6361116113LSep 17 · 16:15T. Krenek1.534890K. Kleprlik2.381111113LSep 17 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.831111113T. Krenek1.836970WSep 17 · 14:15B. Mrowetz2.00511651T. Krenek1.7311911113WSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113LSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113LSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113
D. Vitasek10
LSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113LSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193WSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113LSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860LSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101WSep 14 · 19:40J. Travnicek2.00211591D. Vitasek1.7311311113LSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831191112113A. Kanak1.8341161462
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