TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149339
Played Sep 18Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113113911112––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:02 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 61 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 58.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 4–1 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1567 vs Vitasek 1539
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 20% vs Vitasek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 30% vs Vitasek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -2 · Vitasek -3
Vitasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.57 / Vitasek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Pawlik)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13149339
Pawlik1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Vitasek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 88 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePawlik4wins
AwayVitasek1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPawlik leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik75%3 of 4
AwayVitasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Vitasek1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S2Pawlik4Vitasek1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S3Pawlik3Vitasek2n = 5Pawlik took 3 of 5
S4Pawlik1Vitasek2n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPawlikVitasekP − VBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.227.8+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 475 vs 298 / 61950.1%48.1%238 / 475 vs 298 / 619Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.57/Vitasek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 24 · 08:10D. Pawlik331111113D. Vitasek182880
WJun 5 · 08:45D. Pawlik4111118113D. Vitasek25271151
LJun 5 · 05:45D. Pawlik361178101D. Vitasek4171111123
WMar 28 · 15:15D. Pawlik46411119113D. Vitasek3111331132
WMar 23 · 14:40D. Pawlik351211123D. Vitasek24104100
D. Pawlik10
LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113LSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 11:40E. Precek2.38314115113D. Pawlik1.53111291192LSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor2.3811115123D. Pawlik1.534611101LSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik2.38911891D. Jr1.5311511113LSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171
D. Vitasek10
LSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070LSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113LSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193WSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113LSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860LSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101WSep 14 · 19:40J. Travnicek2.00211591D. Vitasek1.7311311113LSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831191112113A. Kanak1.8341161462
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.