TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148843
Played Sep 18Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111159111191012
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:00 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 56.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 12–13 Tomas Krenek Dominik Pawlik has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:00What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1586 vs Krenek 1628
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 20% vs Krenek 60%
Krenek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 50% vs Krenek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Krenek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.80 / Krenek 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krenek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13148843
Pawlik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Krenek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 100 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back40% 38 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayKrenek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik60%3 of 5
AwayKrenek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S2Pawlik6Krenek4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S3Pawlik5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik3Krenek4n = 7Krenek took 4 of 7
S5Pawlik3Krenek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikKrenekP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.7+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 475 vs 469 / 92850.3%50.5%239 / 475 vs 469 / 928Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekPawlik 1.80/Krenek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:10D. Pawlik331111113T. Krenek187650
LSep 6 · 06:45D. Pawlik48611911112T. Krenek53119119133
WSep 2 · 09:15D. Pawlik47711117113T. Krenek3711151192
WSep 2 · 05:45D. Pawlik506111111113T. Krenek4011213682
LAug 25 · 05:40D. Pawlik225980T. Krenek331111113
LAug 24 · 09:03D. Pawlik3811511652T. Krenek47511911113
WAug 24 · 05:40D. Pawlik5711111410113T. Krenek4865161292
LAug 21 · 11:15D. Pawlik359411111T. Krenek4111116133
LAug 19 · 06:15D. Pawlik4414471182T. Krenek481211113113
WAug 12 · 12:10D. Pawlik331111113T. Krenek229490
D. Pawlik10
LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113WSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 11:40E. Precek2.38314115113D. Pawlik1.53111291192LSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor2.3811115123D. Pawlik1.534611101LSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik2.38911891D. Jr1.5311511113LSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171WSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota1.839111181D. Pawlik1.8311133113
T. Krenek10
WSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070WSep 17 · 16:44K. Kleprlik1.441181491T. Krenek2.6361116113LSep 17 · 16:15T. Krenek1.534890K. Kleprlik2.381111113LSep 17 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.831111113T. Krenek1.836970WSep 17 · 14:15B. Mrowetz2.00511651T. Krenek1.7311911113WSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113LSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113LSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113
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