TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146212
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511121010121012
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:38 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 59.6%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 46–36 Tomas Krenek Tomas Krenek has won 36 of their 82 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skvrna beat Krenek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-36 in 82
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 10 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1700 vs Krenek 1632
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 100% vs Krenek 40%
Skvrna
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 70% vs Krenek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +5 · Krenek +1
Skvrna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.80 / Krenek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvrna)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13146212
Skvrna1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 157 of 210
Krenek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 100 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back40% 38 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwayKrenek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna100%4 of 4
AwayKrenek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Skvrna4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvrna6Krenek3n = 9Skvrna took 6 of 9
S5Skvrna3Krenek1n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaKrenekS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.940.1+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 816 vs 466 / 92358.2%50.5%475 / 816 vs 466 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.80/Krenek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 11:15J. Skvrna44111111113T. Krenek35671391
WSep 15 · 13:10J. Skvrna4181111113T. Krenek29113691
LSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna337411111T. Krenek3911114133
LSep 13 · 13:05J. Skvrna48813611102T. Krenek531111118123
LSep 13 · 10:10J. Skvrna341061171T. Krenek3812114113
WSep 8 · 13:05J. Skvrna43101111113T. Krenek29124581
WSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna511171011123T. Krenek50811129102
LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna2578100T. Krenek341111123
WAug 31 · 11:40J. Skvrna551212911113T. Krenek44101411722
WAug 27 · 17:13J. Skvrna45113128113T. Krenek50911101192
J. Skvrna10
WSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113WSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132WSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113WSep 15 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.6712311113T. Grmela2.101011591LSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133WSep 15 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.671111133L. Slavik2.1045110LSep 14 · 13:15R. Benes2.00111011113J. Skvrna1.73812781WSep 14 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9110101111102J. Skvrna1.80121296123LSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281
T. Krenek10
LSep 17 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.831111113T. Krenek1.836970WSep 17 · 14:15B. Mrowetz2.00511651T. Krenek1.7311911113WSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113LSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113LSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113LSep 15 · 12:15T. Krenek1.8310780L. Slavik1.831211113WSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133WSep 15 · 10:15T. Grmela2.25811111252T. Krenek1.57117814113LSep 15 · 09:13T. Krenek1.733119121T. Grmela2.0011711143
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