TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143359
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416911117911––
Tomas Krenek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 88 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 43–41 Tomas Krenek Tomas Krenek has won 41 of their 84 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krupnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-41 in 84
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1615 vs Krenek 1616
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 80% vs Krenek 40%
Krupnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 50% vs Krenek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +3 · Krenek -2
Krupnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.73 / Krenek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13143359
Krupnik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 138 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 131
Krenek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 100 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back40% 38 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik5wins
AwayKrenek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik50%2 of 4
AwayKrenek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik8Krenek2n = 10Krupnik took 8 of 10
S3Krupnik5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S4Krupnik4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S5Krupnik2Krenek3n = 5Krenek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikKrenekKrupnik − KrenekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.840.8+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 889 vs 464 / 92051.5%50.4%458 / 889 vs 464 / 920Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.73/Krenek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 07:15J. Krupnik26641151T. Krenek3911116113
LSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik4311116962T. Krenek41711111113
WSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik48711118113T. Krenek3411341152
WSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik4491311113T. Krenek351111491
WSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik4516117113T. Krenek361441171
WAug 25 · 09:10J. Krupnik49131110153T. Krenek4311712131
LAug 25 · 07:40J. Krupnik45101111852T. Krenek49126911113
WAug 19 · 10:15J. Krupnik44561111113T. Krenek4411119852
LAug 19 · 09:20J. Krupnik4411127952T. Krenek463101111113
LAug 19 · 07:15J. Krupnik30411961T. Krenek4111811113
J. Krupnik10
LSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113WSep 15 · 13:24J. Krupnik1.8041111123L. Kantor1.911156101WSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak1.5771111992J. Krupnik2.25115411113WSep 15 · 11:10L. Kantor2.5011631152J. Krupnik1.50911117113LSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.57911101142D. Jr2.25113124113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072WSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek1.9111116113J. Krupnik1.80641151LSep 15 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.5711119792T. Grmela2.25891111113LSep 14 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.67134781T. Kindl2.10111111113
T. Krenek10
LSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113LSep 15 · 12:15T. Krenek1.8310780L. Slavik1.831211113WSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133WSep 15 · 10:15T. Grmela2.25811111252T. Krenek1.57117814113LSep 15 · 09:13T. Krenek1.733119121T. Grmela2.0011711143WSep 15 · 08:15T. Grmela2.25149871T. Krenek1.57121111113WSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek1.9111116113J. Krupnik1.80641151WSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 13:05T. Krenek2.001111118123J. Skvrna1.71813611102LSep 13 · 12:10T. Krenek1.673960E. Precek2.101111113
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