TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143521
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111121012511––
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Michal Macurak at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 14–12 Tomas Krenek Tomas Krenek has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Macurak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1681 vs Krenek 1618
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 60% vs Krenek 40%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Krenek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +1 · Krenek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.83 / Krenek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Macurak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13143521
Macurak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Krenek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak5wins
AwayKrenek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak66.7%4 of 6
AwayKrenek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak6Krenek4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S2Macurak6Krenek4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S3Macurak6Krenek4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak4Krenek5n = 9Krenek took 5 of 9
S5Macurak2Krenek4n = 6Krenek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKrenekM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.141.9−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 494 vs 465 / 92251.2%50.4%253 / 494 vs 465 / 922Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.83/Krenek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak501111116113T. Krenek4761381192
WSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak3711411113T. Krenek35711891
WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak341111123T. Krenek2697100
LAug 24 · 11:10M. Macurak3311112902T. Krenek51991111113
LAug 19 · 11:45M. Macurak3712114462T. Krenek481051111113
LAug 18 · 10:10M. Macurak411212891T. Krenek46141011113
LAug 7 · 05:40M. Macurak4598111162T. Krenek42111163113
WJul 2 · 10:15M. Macurak53118119143T. Krenek47711611122
LJul 2 · 09:15M. Macurak3991141142T. Krenek45115117113
WJul 2 · 07:45M. Macurak4281112113T. Krenek321171041
M. Macurak10
WSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100WSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113LSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132WSep 16 · 09:04L. Slavik1.6751080M. Macurak2.101112113LSep 16 · 07:40M. Macurak1.83114111192L. Slavik1.83131117113WSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112WSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860WSep 15 · 16:45M. Macurak1.671111113B. Mrowetz2.107690LSep 15 · 15:45B. Moravec1.5071311113M. Macurak2.501111551LSep 15 · 15:15D. Skulina1.831611113M. Macurak1.8314490
T. Krenek10
LSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113LSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113LSep 15 · 12:15T. Krenek1.8310780L. Slavik1.831211113WSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133WSep 15 · 10:15T. Grmela2.25811111252T. Krenek1.57117814113LSep 15 · 09:13T. Krenek1.733119121T. Grmela2.0011711143WSep 15 · 08:15T. Grmela2.25149871T. Krenek1.57121111113WSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek1.9111116113J. Krupnik1.80641151WSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113
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