TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146213
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151171210––––
Jan Krupnik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:38 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 56 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Michal Macurak at 54.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 22–14 Jan Krupnik Jan Krupnik has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Macurak beat Krupnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Macurak
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1667 vs Krupnik 1586
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 40% vs Krupnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 50% vs Krupnik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -1 · Krupnik -3
Krupnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.61 / Krupnik 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Macurak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13146213
Macurak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 64 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 42 of 54
Krupnik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 94 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak7wins
AwayKrupnik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak75%3 of 4
AwayKrupnik33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Macurak8Krupnik2n = 10Macurak took 8 of 10
S3Macurak5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Macurak7Krupnik3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S5Macurak2Krupnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKrupnikM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.938.8+3.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 495 vs 458 / 89251.1%51.4%253 / 495 vs 458 / 892Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.61/Krupnik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 10:45M. Macurak4615119113J. Krupnik411391181
LSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak4771111992J. Krupnik42115411113
WSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak4211119113J. Krupnik26741141
LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak3861111732J. Krupnik48117811113
WSep 5 · 10:15M. Macurak3911611113J. Krupnik29611751
WSep 4 · 09:40M. Macurak48611911113J. Krupnik4611811882
WSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak48611911113J. Krupnik4611811882
WSep 4 · 06:10M. Macurak4051311113J. Krupnik371111961
WAug 23 · 20:10M. Macurak3521111113J. Krupnik30117751
LAug 19 · 12:39M. Macurak36128971J. Krupnik43101111113
M. Macurak10
LSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113WSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113LSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132WSep 16 · 09:04L. Slavik1.6751080M. Macurak2.101112113LSep 16 · 07:40M. Macurak1.83114111192L. Slavik1.83131117113WSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112WSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860WSep 15 · 16:45M. Macurak1.671111113B. Mrowetz2.107690LSep 15 · 15:45B. Moravec1.5071311113M. Macurak2.501111551LSep 15 · 15:15D. Skulina1.831611113M. Macurak1.8314490
J. Krupnik10
LSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113LSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113LSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113WSep 15 · 13:24J. Krupnik1.8041111123L. Kantor1.911156101WSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak1.5771111992J. Krupnik2.25115411113WSep 15 · 11:10L. Kantor2.5011631152J. Krupnik1.50911117113LSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.57911101142D. Jr2.25113124113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072WSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek1.9111116113J. Krupnik1.80641151
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