TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143519
Played Sep 17Finished
Erik Precek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111412119511119
Dominik Pawlik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Precek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Precek above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Erik Precek at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Erik Precek 8–7 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Precek 1557 vs Pawlik 1595
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Precek 40% vs Pawlik 20%
Precek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Precek 50% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Precek -2 · Pawlik -3
Pawlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrecek 2.38 / Pawlik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Pawlik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13143519
Precek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 56 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Pawlik1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrecek4wins
AwayPawlik6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrecek66.7%2 of 3
AwayPawlik71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Precek3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S2Precek6Pawlik4n = 10Precek took 6 of 10
S3Precek5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Precek6Pawlik2n = 8Precek took 6 of 8
S5Precek1Pawlik4n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrecekPawlikPrecek − PawlikBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.743.0−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrecekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 464 vs 238 / 47347%50.3%218 / 464 vs 238 / 473Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPrecek 2.38/Pawlik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Precek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 25 · 07:10E. Precek4171111123D. Pawlik311137101
WMay 14 · 14:10E. Precek4311118133D. Pawlik337411111
LMay 9 · 07:15E. Precek4571181272D. Pawlik511181110113
LMay 6 · 09:40E. Precek25721151D. Pawlik4111118113
LMay 3 · 06:15E. Precek49811111182D. Pawlik47111375113
WApr 29 · 06:45E. Precek52981113113D. Pawlik48111191162
WApr 18 · 12:10E. Precek361114113D. Pawlik2991280
LApr 18 · 08:45E. Precek5111139992D. Pawlik506111111113
LApr 18 · 08:10E. Precek39814170D. Pawlik461116193
LApr 5 · 19:40E. Precek46121141182D. Pawlik54149119113
E. Precek10
LSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 10:40E. Precek1.80108100D. Jr1.911211123LSep 17 · 09:40E. Precek1.6761011141L. Kantor2.1011125163WSep 13 · 12:35J. Krupnik2.059911101E. Precek1.6811115123WSep 13 · 12:10T. Krenek1.673960E. Precek2.101111113LSep 13 · 11:10E. Precek2.25841181J. Skvrna1.5711117113LSep 13 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.5714117113E. Precek2.251261171WSep 12 · 17:20I. Heuman1.91119381E. Precek1.8071111113LSep 12 · 16:10I. Heuman2.101111119113E. Precek1.6759131182WSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090
D. Pawlik10
WSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor2.3811115123D. Pawlik1.534611101LSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik2.38911891D. Jr1.5311511113LSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171WSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota1.839111181D. Pawlik1.8311133113WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113
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