TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145315
Played Sep 17Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811117118––
Lukas Slavik
Away
2.02
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Lukas Slavik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Radek Benes at 61.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 7–3 Lukas Slavik Lukas Slavik has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (55%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Benes
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1626 vs Slavik 1635
Slavik
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Slavik 60%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 70% vs Slavik 50%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +4 · Slavik +2
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slavik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.62 / Slavik 2.02
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13145315
Benes1.62
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 170 of 299
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it75% 113 of 150
Slavik2.02
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 36 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back38% 16 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes7wins
AwaySlavik3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes80%4 of 5
AwaySlavik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Slavik5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes5Slavik5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes6Slavik4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes5Slavik2n = 7Benes took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesSlavikB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.833.4+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesSlavikBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 952 vs 117 / 22452.1%52.2%496 / 952 vs 117 / 224Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.62/Slavik 2.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 05:45R. Benes4181111113L. Slavik30116761
WJul 16 · 05:40R. Benes3911512113L. Slavik327111041
WJul 13 · 05:45R. Benes4181111113L. Slavik31119291
WJul 11 · 12:45R. Benes331111113L. Slavik235990
LJul 11 · 10:45R. Benes30116671L. Slavik3961111113
LJul 9 · 08:45R. Benes2241080L. Slavik341112113
WJul 9 · 07:45R. Benes43126311113L. Slavik39101111522
WJul 6 · 15:45R. Benes48711811113L. Slavik3711911242
WJun 16 · 09:15R. Benes361311123L. Slavik30119100
LJun 16 · 06:10R. Benes35871191L. Slavik3911116113
R. Benes10
WSep 17 · 08:15D. Jr1.731171271R. Benes2.0051114113WSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762WSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik1.83116761R. Benes1.8381111113WSep 14 · 13:15R. Benes2.00111011113J. Skvrna1.73812781LSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110WSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281WSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113LSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113LSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133
L. Slavik10
WSep 17 · 07:45L. Slavik1.83911118113T. Kindl1.8311391142WSep 17 · 06:45L. Slavik1.8371211133D. Jr1.8311107111LSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik1.83116761R. Benes1.8381111113LSep 16 · 09:04L. Slavik1.6751080M. Macurak2.101112113WSep 16 · 07:40M. Macurak1.83114111192L. Slavik1.83131117113WSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113LSep 16 · 06:10L. Slavik1.83911119102T. Kindl1.83118911123LSep 15 · 12:40T. Grmela1.801111118113L. Slavik1.9113691162WSep 15 · 12:15T. Krenek1.8310780L. Slavik1.831211113LSep 15 · 11:15L. Slavik1.7314780T. Grmela2.001611113
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