TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143512
Played Sep 17Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811411116117116
Tomas Kindl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kindl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Kindl at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 14–14 Tomas Kindl Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1614 vs Kindl 1513
Benes
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Kindl 0%
Benes
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 50% vs Kindl 30%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +2 · Kindl -5
Kindl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Kindl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13143512
Benes1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 170 of 299
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it75% 113 of 150
Kindl1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 48 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes6wins
AwayKindl4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes80%4 of 5
AwayKindl60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes4Kindl6n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S3Benes3Kindl7n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S4Benes6Kindl2n = 8Benes took 6 of 8
S5Benes3Kindl1n = 4Benes took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKindlB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.0+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 951 vs 214 / 42552.1%50.4%495 / 951 vs 214 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.741.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.80/Kindl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes45841111113T. Kindl4111116762
LSep 14 · 12:15R. Benes2458110T. Kindl351111133
LSep 7 · 10:40R. Benes228950T. Kindl331111113
WAug 26 · 16:10R. Benes4111118113T. Kindl29491151
LAug 5 · 08:44R. Benes4093111162T. Kindl48111196113
WAug 5 · 06:10R. Benes47121211123T. Kindl4014106101
LAug 3 · 10:45R. Benes401297121T. Kindl46101111143
WAug 1 · 13:40R. Benes521110812113T. Kindl49912111072
WJul 20 · 09:08R. Benes53111399113T. Kindl49711111192
WJul 20 · 06:10R. Benes4011117113T. Kindl30731191
R. Benes10
WSep 17 · 08:15D. Jr1.731171271R. Benes2.0051114113WSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik1.83116761R. Benes1.8381111113WSep 14 · 13:15R. Benes2.00111011113J. Skvrna1.73812781LSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110WSep 14 · 11:15R. Benes1.91111110113J. Skvrna1.80781281WSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113LSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113LSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491
T. Kindl10
LSep 17 · 07:45L. Slavik1.83911118113T. Kindl1.8311391142LSep 17 · 06:15T. Kindl1.735161481D. Jr2.00111812113LSep 16 · 12:40L. Dzida1.83581111123T. Kindl1.83111189102LSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 11:10L. Dzida1.9111611113T. Kindl1.80711831LSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193LSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112WSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110
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