TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146924
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119119––––
Filip Marat
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Filip Marat at 55.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 9–22 Filip Marat Martin Filipek has won 9 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Filipek beat Marat 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marat
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-22 in 31
Marat
Wrong
gap of 13 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1562 vs Marat 1471
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 60% vs Marat 40%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 70% vs Marat 50%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +3 · Marat +2
Filipek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marat) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.83 / Marat 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marat)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13146924
Filipek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Marat1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek4wins
AwayMarat6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarat leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek50%3 of 6
AwayMarat75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek6Marat4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S2Filipek5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S3Filipek3Marat7n = 10Marat took 7 of 10
S4Filipek4Marat4n = 8split evenly
S5Filipek1Marat3n = 4Marat took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekMaratF − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.1−1.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 603 vs 235 / 52544.3%44.8%267 / 603 vs 235 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaratFilipek 1.83/Marat 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marat · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek52118119133F. Marat45711511112
LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek4111851162F. Marat46911114113
LAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek491411111032F. Marat561281312113
LJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek189540F. Marat331111113
WJul 20 · 14:25M. Filipek46111310123F. Marat4181112101
LJul 20 · 12:55M. Filipek35991161F. Marat4111118113
LJul 17 · 09:58M. Filipek2891180F. Marat351113113
WJul 17 · 07:55M. Filipek4281211113F. Marat351110861
LJun 17 · 12:25M. Filipek62161191792F. Marat621471119113
WJun 15 · 08:25M. Filipek4111118113F. Marat37991181
M. Filipek10
WSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120WSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062WSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek2.00118119133F. Marat1.73711511112LSep 16 · 13:30M. Filipek3.0051141192B. Budik1.35117119113LSep 16 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.67111014113M. Filipek2.102121251WSep 16 · 11:50M. Filipek1.80911411113B. Budik1.9011711492LSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar1.911411113113M. Filipek1.8016451162WSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181WSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113
F. Marat10
WSep 17 · 13:25L. Moravec1.4011451172F. Marat2.75811119113WSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102LSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek2.00118119133F. Marat1.73711511112LSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113LSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123WSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113WSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113
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