TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142789
Played Sep 17Finished
Yevhen Bielokon
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121141181210––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYevhen Bielokon above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 60.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Bielokon 32–33 Valentyn Chumak Yevhen Bielokon has won 32 of their 65 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:27What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-33 in 65
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bielokon 1249 vs Chumak 1461
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bielokon 40% vs Chumak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bielokon 30% vs Chumak 50%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bielokon +1 · Chumak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBielokon 2.38 / Chumak 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Chumak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13142789
Bielokon2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Chumak1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it65% 32 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBielokon3wins
AwayChumak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBielokon25%1 of 4
AwayChumak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bielokon4Chumak6n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S2Bielokon3Chumak7n = 10Chumak took 7 of 10
S3Bielokon2Chumak8n = 10Chumak took 8 of 10
S4Bielokon3Chumak6n = 9Chumak took 6 of 9
S5Bielokon3Chumak0n = 3Bielokon took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBielokonChumakB − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.742.2−6.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBielokonChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 555 vs 284 / 56047.4%50.7%263 / 555 vs 284 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakBielokon 2.38/Chumak 1.53
Miss
What we said
63.6%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bielokon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon381213671V. Chumak47101511113
LSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon30119371V. Chumak3961111113
LJul 6 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2581070V. Chumak341112113
WJun 22 · 13:35Y. Bielokon47661311113V. Chumak47111111772
LJun 18 · 17:05Y. Bielokon33116791V. Chumak4071111113
WJun 16 · 13:35Y. Bielokon46117611113V. Chumak4581111692
LJun 10 · 13:35Y. Bielokon291041141V. Chumak3812114113
WJun 8 · 13:35Y. Bielokon501011612113V. Chumak47126111082
LJun 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon346135101V. Chumak45111111123
LJun 1 · 15:05Y. Bielokon25311831V. Chumak4011711113
Y. Bielokon10
WSep 17 · 15:05V. Leonov2.255930Y. Bielokon1.571111113WSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113LSep 11 · 17:35Y. Bielokon3.409260V. Kaganovych1.301111113LSep 11 · 16:35Y. Bielokon1.831112129122A. Azarov1.839141011143LSep 11 · 15:05Y. Bielokon1.441111371R. Serhyenko2.6313711113WSep 11 · 13:05Y. Bielokon1.831311123V. Sydorenko1.83115100WSep 8 · 19:05Y. Bielokon1.501111113R. Serhyenko2.507990LSep 8 · 17:05V. Kaganovych1.331111113Y. Bielokon3.259980LSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113LSep 8 · 15:05V. Sydorenko1.8331512113Y. Bielokon1.8311131081
V. Chumak10
WSep 17 · 14:35V. Chumak2.2512811113D. Boltenkov1.571011941WSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840LSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:55V. Chumak1.331111123A. Azarov3.2599100LSep 10 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.73911511113V. Chumak2.0011411792LSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872LSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192
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