TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142778
Played Sep 17Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210811119114––
Denys Boltenkov
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Denys Boltenkov at 59.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 1–3 Denys Boltenkov Valentyn Chumak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Boltenkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Boltenkov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1443 vs Boltenkov 1407
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 40% vs Boltenkov 20%
Chumak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 40% vs Boltenkov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak -1 · Boltenkov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Boltenkov) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltenkov form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 2.25 / Boltenkov 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Boltenkov)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13142778
Chumak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 63 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Boltenkov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 14 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChumak1wins
AwayBoltenkov3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderBoltenkov leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBoltenkov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak1Boltenkov3n = 4Boltenkov took 3 of 4
S2Chumak2Boltenkov2n = 4split evenly
S3Chumak3Boltenkov1n = 4Chumak took 3 of 4
S4Chumak1Boltenkov3n = 4Boltenkov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricChumakBoltenkovC − BBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match36.039.8−3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 551 vs 18 / 3151.2%58.1%282 / 551 vs 18 / 31Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovChumak 2.25/Boltenkov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak345101181D. Boltenkov3911125113
LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak29811641D. Boltenkov4211911113
LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak3851111652D. Boltenkov46116711113
WAug 21 · 19:35V. Chumak4311813113D. Boltenkov323111171
V. Chumak10
WSep 17 · 15:35A. Azarov3.50911111152V. Chumak1.28111358113LSep 17 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.38101111123V. Chumak1.531248101WSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840LSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:55V. Chumak1.331111123A. Azarov3.2599100LSep 10 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.73911511113V. Chumak2.0011411792LSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872LSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 17 · 12:35A. Azarov3.0013590D. Boltenkov1.361511113LSep 10 · 20:25D. Boltenkov1.2081161172A. Azarov4.33115114113LSep 10 · 18:25V. Sharpai1.6731115113D. Boltenkov2.101121361LSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552LSep 10 · 15:25D. Boltenkov2.1012119252A. Lifanov1.671071111113WSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113LSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113LSep 3 · 14:05A. Azarov5.50941111113D. Boltenkov1.1311118642
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