TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140363
Played Sep 17Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117911115––
Adam Brazda
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:52 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Adam Brazda below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 56.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 21–16 Adam Brazda Adam Brazda has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Pikous
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1601 vs Brazda 1716
Brazda
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 20% vs Brazda 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 20% vs Brazda 40%
Brazda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous -4 · Brazda -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brazda form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.61 / Brazda 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brazda)+3.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140363
Pikous1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 98 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it89% 50 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 70 of 92
Brazda2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 31 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back39% 14 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous5wins
AwayBrazda5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous66.7%4 of 6
AwayBrazda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous6Brazda4n = 10Pikous took 6 of 10
S2Pikous3Brazda7n = 10Brazda took 7 of 10
S3Pikous6Brazda4n = 10Pikous took 6 of 10
S4Pikous5Brazda2n = 7Pikous took 5 of 7
S5Pikous1Brazda2n = 3Brazda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousBrazdaP − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.635.1+3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousBrazdaBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 681 vs 190 / 40052.9%47.5%360 / 681 vs 190 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.61/Brazda 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 21:30M. Pikous351171161A. Brazda4161113113
LAug 6 · 18:30M. Pikous35591291A. Brazda43111110113
WMar 12 · 17:00M. Pikous331111113A. Brazda155550
WMar 4 · 17:00M. Pikous341211113A. Brazda1710430
WMar 3 · 18:00M. Pikous541113712113A. Brazda48615111062
LMar 3 · 15:00M. Pikous48111081182A. Brazda47612117113
LFeb 9 · 16:30M. Pikous4349111182A. Brazda38111141113
WDec 10 · 22:00M. Pikous4211911113A. Brazda37911891
WDec 10 · 20:00M. Pikous43101111113A. Brazda32125961
LNov 3 · 17:30M. Pikous192980A. Brazda331111113
M. Pikous10
WSep 17 · 16:30J. Louda1.737740M. Pikous2.001111113LSep 17 · 14:30R. Urbaniec2.7512114113M. Pikous1.401041171LSep 10 · 02:30M. Sychra1.9611118113M. Pikous1.67931181LSep 10 · 01:00M. Skakal2.0011115113M. Pikous1.73791161LSep 9 · 23:30M. Pikous1.779990J. Tazler1.931111113WSep 9 · 22:00M. Pikous1.821311113M. Regner1.8811790WSep 9 · 21:00D. Tuma2.2551530M. Pikous1.571117113LSep 9 · 20:00M. Pikous2.008111191M. Bittner1.7311913113LSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071LSep 9 · 18:00M. Pikous1.3699111182D. Tuma3.00111155113
A. Brazda10
LSep 17 · 16:58J. Louda1.501111133A. Brazda2.5073110LSep 17 · 16:00A. Brazda2.5097111162R. Urbaniec1.50111177113LSep 17 · 14:00A. Brazda2.509870J. Louda1.501111113LSep 14 · 17:00A. Brazda2.25114321R. Urbaniec1.5791111113LSep 14 · 16:00O. Kolisnyk1.331111113A. Brazda3.259860WSep 14 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.57158961A. Brazda2.25131111113LSep 14 · 14:30A. Brazda2.75127551R. Rose1.40101111113LSep 10 · 17:30R. Urbaniec1.657111111113A. Brazda2.1011136462WSep 10 · 16:00V. Nohejl1.611171071A. Brazda2.2041112113LSep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.40141111113A. Brazda2.75167581
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