TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110629
Played Sep 10Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111113116114116
Adam Brazda
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Brazda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Adam Brazda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Adam Brazda at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 5–4 Adam Brazda Adam Brazda has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Urbaniec beat Brazda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Urbaniec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1767 vs Brazda 1780
Brazda
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 60% vs Brazda 80%
Brazda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 50% vs Brazda 80%
Brazda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec +2 · Brazda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brazda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.65 / Brazda 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brazda)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110629
Urbaniec1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 205 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it92% 101 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it77% 138 of 180
Brazda2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 31 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back34% 12 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeUrbaniec5wins
AwayBrazda4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec75%3 of 4
AwayBrazda60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec4Brazda5n = 9Brazda took 5 of 9
S2Urbaniec5Brazda4n = 9Urbaniec took 5 of 9
S3Urbaniec7Brazda2n = 9Urbaniec took 7 of 9
S4Urbaniec4Brazda2n = 6Urbaniec took 4 of 6
S5Urbaniec1Brazda3n = 4Brazda took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricUrbaniecBrazdaU − BBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match39.736.1+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecBrazdaBasisWin rate · lifetime620 / 1216 vs 191 / 39851%48%620 / 1216 vs 191 / 398Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 1.65/Brazda 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec—141111113A. Brazda—167581
LAug 18 · 21:02R. Urbaniec—87111172A. Brazda—111178113
WAug 18 · 19:30R. Urbaniec—1111113A. Brazda—9770
WJan 15 · 20:00R. Urbaniec—111111143A. Brazda—7135121
LJan 4 · 09:30R. Urbaniec—61111252A. Brazda—1111210113
WJan 3 · 16:30R. Urbaniec—1111113A. Brazda—2980
WDec 30 · 19:30R. Urbaniec—811118113A. Brazda—11621122
LDec 29 · 21:30R. Urbaniec—121167102A. Brazda—1081111123
LApr 3 · 20:00R. Urbaniec—8780A. Brazda—1111113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 10 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.73127711113O. Svacha2.00101111672WSep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.40141111113A. Brazda2.75167581LSep 10 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.57651211113R. Urbaniec2.25111110942WSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.38691191M. Wagner1.5311116113WSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551LSep 10 · 24:00J. Ruzicka1.50411416113R. Urbaniec2.50115111482WSep 9 · 22:30O. Svacha1.838750R. Urbaniec1.831111113LSep 9 · 17:00R. Urbaniec1.8356100M. Jezek1.831111123LSep 9 · 16:00R. Urbaniec1.82791681O. Kolisnyk1.88111114113
A. Brazda10
WSep 10 · 16:00V. Nohejl1.611171071A. Brazda2.2041112113LSep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.40141111113A. Brazda2.75167581WSep 10 · 14:30A. Brazda2.5051111113O. Svacha1.50119661WSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121WSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113WSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121WSep 3 · 17:30J. Simecek1.6510740A. Brazda2.101211113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Brazda2.1095111132J. Simecek1.67111177113WSep 3 · 15:00A. Brazda1.61515811113S. Kasnik2.20111311792
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
A. Brazda
Nothing scheduled
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