TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13138480
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 99–71 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 71 of their 170 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Mishchenko beat Kovalchuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 1.67 / Kovalchuk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mishchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13138480
Mishchenko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 115 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it88% 76 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it84% 98 of 117
Kovalchuk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 76 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko60%3 of 5
AwayKovalchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Mishchenko6Kovalchuk4n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S3Mishchenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Mishchenko3Kovalchuk4n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5Mishchenko1Kovalchuk3n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoKovalchukM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.6−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 1061 vs 330 / 78446.8%42.1%497 / 1061 vs 330 / 784Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoMishchenko 1.67/Kovalchuk 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 24:55O. Mishchenko361411113O. Kovalchuk3012990
LSep 10 · 24:55O. Mishchenko24511531O. Kovalchuk4211911113
LSep 3 · 15:25O. Mishchenko4611911962O. Kovalchuk46811511113
LSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko314111061O. Kovalchuk3911512113
LAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko28111070O. Kovalchuk361312113
WAug 26 · 02:55O. Mishchenko49117911113O. Kovalchuk4491111492
LAug 20 · 15:25O. Mishchenko4176111162O. Kovalchuk47111177113
LAug 19 · 01:55O. Mishchenko4511118872O. Kovalchuk49791111113
WAug 13 · 20:25O. Mishchenko4181111113O. Kovalchuk27116551
WAug 13 · 02:25O. Mishchenko331111113O. Kovalchuk165470
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 16 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.3311119113E. Rubtsov3.25551161WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 15 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi1.67881181O. Mishchenko2.1011116113LSep 15 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.831181111113O. Mishchenko1.8391161382LSep 14 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.2291111113O. Mishchenko4.00118271LSep 14 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.631181581A. Chepurnyi1.44131113113WSep 14 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.001111133P. Plakushchyi1.7389110LSep 13 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.255850O. Dukhovenko1.571111113WSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950LSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.636720A. Chepurnyi1.441111113
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131LSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113WSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030
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