TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121836
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191311––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 63 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 54.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 50–62 Pavel Plakushchyi Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 50 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-62 in 112
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 12 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1545 vs Plakushchyi 1687
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Plakushchyi 60%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Plakushchyi 50%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -1 · Plakushchyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.00 / Plakushchyi 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121836
Mishchenko2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog35% won 85 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back13% 18 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Plakushchyi1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 48 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko6wins
AwayPlakushchyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPlakushchyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko6Plakushchyi4n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S2Mishchenko5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Mishchenko5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Mishchenko5Plakushchyi3n = 8Mishchenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoPlakushchyiM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.235.4+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1059 vs 307 / 69046.8%44.5%496 / 1059 vs 307 / 690Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiMishchenko 2.00/Plakushchyi 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko45117115113P. Plakushchyi3961141172
WSep 8 · 22:25O. Mishchenko4214511123P. Plakushchyi4012117101
LSep 4 · 17:25O. Mishchenko30711481P. Plakushchyi3811511113
WSep 3 · 19:55O. Mishchenko341112113P. Plakushchyi2241080
LSep 2 · 22:25O. Mishchenko371161371P. Plakushchyi4141115113
LAug 26 · 18:25O. Mishchenko4391151172P. Plakushchyi44114117113
WAug 25 · 21:55O. Mishchenko3911611113P. Plakushchyi31811481
WAug 20 · 14:25O. Mishchenko4161111133P. Plakushchyi371187111
LAug 20 · 02:25O. Mishchenko238870P. Plakushchyi331111113
WAug 19 · 03:55O. Mishchenko3811115113P. Plakushchyi29671151
O. Mishchenko10
LSep 14 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.631181581A. Chepurnyi1.44131113113LSep 13 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.255850O. Dukhovenko1.571111113WSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950LSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.636720A. Chepurnyi1.441111113LSep 13 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.50119811113O. Mishchenko2.5051111442LSep 13 · 24:55O. Mishchenko3.00591151O. Gavryshko1.3611117113LSep 12 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311711113O. Mishchenko2.00811891WSep 12 · 22:25O. Mishchenko4.3391111153Y. Kryvorotko1.201157131LSep 11 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.3612811113O. Mishchenko3.001011971LSep 11 · 18:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113O. Mishchenko2.00581151
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 13 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi1.6112560P. Plakushchyi2.201411113WSep 13 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.306590P. Plakushchyi3.401111113LSep 13 · 03:25O. Dukhovenko1.111111123P. Plakushchyi6.0094100WSep 13 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi3.4091111113Y. Kryvorotko1.30119571LSep 13 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi2.257370A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WSep 12 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311711113O. Mishchenko2.00811891LSep 12 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi2.38911441O. Gavryshko1.5311811113LSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662WSep 11 · 18:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113O. Mishchenko2.00581151LSep 11 · 16:55O. Gavryshko1.61711111113P. Plakushchyi2.2011811562
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