TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111627
Played Sep 11Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911711116116
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 59.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 47–39 Pavel Plakushchyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 39 of their 86 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-39 in 86
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1795 vs Plakushchyi 1622
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Plakushchyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 70% vs Plakushchyi 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi -2 · Plakushchyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.57 / Plakushchyi 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111627
Chepurnyi1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 164 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 127 of 155
Plakushchyi2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChepurnyi2wins
AwayPlakushchyi8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayPlakushchyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S2Chepurnyi2Plakushchyi8n = 10Plakushchyi took 8 of 10
S3Chepurnyi5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Chepurnyi3Plakushchyi5n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5Chepurnyi1Plakushchyi2n = 3Plakushchyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChepurnyiPlakushchyiC − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.6−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 938 vs 307 / 69259.4%44.4%557 / 938 vs 307 / 692Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.57/Plakushchyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi—811761P. Plakushchyi—11811113
LAug 7 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi—1141191P. Plakushchyi—13115113
WJul 19 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi—13111111113P. Plakushchyi—15139762
LJul 17 · 15:55A. Chepurnyi—111091192P. Plakushchyi—512118113
LJun 21 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi—571141P. Plakushchyi—11118113
LJun 21 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi—511117102P. Plakushchyi—118911123
LJun 15 · 02:25A. Chepurnyi—68110P. Plakushchyi—1111133
LMay 24 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi—115691P. Plakushchyi—21111113
LMay 24 · 02:25A. Chepurnyi—76100P. Plakushchyi—1111123
WMay 22 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi—11911113P. Plakushchyi—811671
A. Chepurnyi10
LSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492LSep 11 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko1.441111113A. Chepurnyi2.635690WSep 11 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5381111113O. Mishchenko2.38114391WSep 11 · 14:25O. Gavryshko1.836740A. Chepurnyi1.831111113WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 11 · 18:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113O. Mishchenko2.00581151LSep 11 · 16:55O. Gavryshko1.61711111113P. Plakushchyi2.2011811562LSep 11 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko1.111111113P. Plakushchyi6.008850WSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113LSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko2.10117115113P. Plakushchyi1.6761141172WSep 10 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.001211811122P. Plakushchyi1.73144116143WSep 9 · 23:25E. Rubtsov2.751181251P. Plakushchyi1.4061114113WSep 9 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.839580P. Plakushchyi1.831111113WSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792
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