TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111498
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181148111214119
Artem Chepurnyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 66.8%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 1–11 Artem Chepurnyi Ivan Demchenko has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chepurnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-11 in 12
Chepurnyi
Wrong
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1698 vs Chepurnyi 1801
Chepurnyi
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 40% vs Chepurnyi 80%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 50% vs Chepurnyi 70%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko +1 · Chepurnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 2.63 / Chepurnyi 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111498
Demchenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog25% won 21 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Chepurnyi1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 164 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 127 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDemchenko0wins
AwayChepurnyi10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko0%0 of 4
AwayChepurnyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko4Chepurnyi6n = 10Chepurnyi took 6 of 10
S2Demchenko2Chepurnyi8n = 10Chepurnyi took 8 of 10
S3Demchenko2Chepurnyi8n = 10Chepurnyi took 8 of 10
S4Demchenko1Chepurnyi6n = 7Chepurnyi took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDemchenkoChepurnyiD − CBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.841.4−8.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 149 vs 557 / 93745%59.5%67 / 149 vs 557 / 937Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiDemchenko 2.63/Chepurnyi 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Demchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko—1113751A. Chepurnyi—71511113
LSep 6 · 24:55I. Demchenko—1211912102A. Chepurnyi—1051114123
LAug 21 · 17:55I. Demchenko—1011101172A. Chepurnyi—129128113
LAug 17 · 02:55I. Demchenko—113931A. Chepurnyi—51111113
LAug 16 · 24:25I. Demchenko—101060A. Chepurnyi—1212113
LAug 7 · 18:25I. Demchenko—7740A. Chepurnyi—1111113
LAug 2 · 22:25I. Demchenko—871151A. Chepurnyi—11119113
LAug 2 · 02:55I. Demchenko—119771A. Chepurnyi—81111113
LJun 29 · 04:25I. Demchenko—6121141A. Chepurnyi—11148113
LJun 16 · 19:55I. Demchenko—8670A. Chepurnyi—1111113
I. Demchenko10
LSep 11 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.28111183I. Demchenko3.503540WSep 11 · 17:25I. Demchenko1.5711134113O. Mishchenko2.258111171LSep 11 · 15:55I. Demchenko3.001390O. Gavryshko1.361111113LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133
A. Chepurnyi10
LSep 11 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko1.441111113A. Chepurnyi2.635690WSep 11 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5381111113O. Mishchenko2.38114391WSep 11 · 14:25O. Gavryshko1.836740A. Chepurnyi1.831111113WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.611311113A. Chepurnyi2.2011820
Upcoming Matches
I. Demchenko
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A. Chepurnyi
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