TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111298
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311411117––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeIvan Demchenko to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ivan Demchenko at 65.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 14–4 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Demchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-4 in 18
Demchenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1689 vs Mishchenko 1580
Demchenko
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 40% vs Mishchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 40% vs Mishchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko -2 · Mishchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Demchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 1.57 / Mishchenko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Demchenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111298
Demchenko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 45 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Mishchenko2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 94 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back13% 17 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDemchenko8wins
AwayMishchenko2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDemchenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko100%6 of 6
AwayMishchenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S2Demchenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S3Demchenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S4Demchenko5Mishchenko4n = 9Demchenko took 5 of 9
S5Demchenko4Mishchenko1n = 5Demchenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDemchenkoMishchenkoD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.639.1+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 148 vs 497 / 105944.6%46.9%66 / 148 vs 497 / 1059Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DemchenkoDemchenko 1.57/Mishchenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Demchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Demchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 23:55I. Demchenko—111155113O. Mishchenko—97111162
WAug 20 · 24:25I. Demchenko—1113105113O. Mishchenko—711121192
WAug 19 · 24:55I. Demchenko—1411113O. Mishchenko—12770
WAug 16 · 21:55I. Demchenko—81111113O. Mishchenko—118631
WAug 13 · 16:55I. Demchenko—11611113O. Mishchenko—411391
WAug 12 · 23:25I. Demchenko—9101115113O. Mishchenko—111271352
LAug 6 · 03:55I. Demchenko—64111172O. Mishchenko—111168113
WAug 5 · 02:55I. Demchenko—11159113O. Mishchenko—4131141
LAug 3 · 02:25I. Demchenko—881171O. Mishchenko—11119113
WJul 13 · 24:55I. Demchenko—1111811113O. Mishchenko—79111372
I. Demchenko10
LSep 11 · 15:55I. Demchenko3.001390O. Gavryshko1.361111113LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102
O. Mishchenko10
LSep 11 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5381111113O. Mishchenko2.38114391WSep 11 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50139781O. Mishchenko2.50111111113LSep 10 · 04:25E. Rubtsov3.40111011123O. Mishchenko1.309128101WSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko2.10117115113P. Plakushchyi1.6761141172LSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.737127121O. Mishchenko2.00111011143LSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030LSep 9 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.8311911113O. Mishchenko1.83711961LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113
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