TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122186
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119115––––
Ivan Demchenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Demchenko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Ivan Demchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Ivan Demchenko at 66.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 4–15 Ivan Demchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 4 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Demchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-15 in 19
Demchenko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1527 vs Demchenko 1689
Demchenko
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Demchenko 40%
Demchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Demchenko 50%
Demchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -4 · Demchenko -1
Mishchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Demchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.50 / Demchenko 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Demchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122186
Mishchenko2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog35% won 85 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back13% 18 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Demchenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 43 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko2wins
AwayDemchenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDemchenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko50%2 of 4
AwayDemchenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko4Demchenko6n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S2Mishchenko4Demchenko6n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S3Mishchenko4Demchenko6n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S4Mishchenko3Demchenko6n = 9Demchenko took 6 of 9
S5Mishchenko1Demchenko3n = 4Demchenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoDemchenkoM − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.3−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoDemchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1062 vs 68 / 15146.7%45%496 / 1062 vs 68 / 151Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DemchenkoMishchenko 2.50/Demchenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Demchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 17:25O. Mishchenko378111171I. Demchenko3911134113
LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko4497111162I. Demchenko43111155113
LAug 20 · 24:25O. Mishchenko50711121192I. Demchenko501113105113
LAug 19 · 24:55O. Mishchenko2612770I. Demchenko361411113
LAug 16 · 21:55O. Mishchenko28118631I. Demchenko4181111113
LAug 13 · 16:55O. Mishchenko27411391I. Demchenko3911611113
LAug 12 · 23:25O. Mishchenko48111271352I. Demchenko569101115113
WAug 6 · 03:55O. Mishchenko47111168113I. Demchenko3964111172
LAug 5 · 02:55O. Mishchenko324131141I. Demchenko4611159113
WAug 3 · 02:25O. Mishchenko4211119113I. Demchenko34881171
O. Mishchenko10
LSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.636720A. Chepurnyi1.441111113LSep 13 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.50119811113O. Mishchenko2.5051111442LSep 13 · 24:55O. Mishchenko3.00591151O. Gavryshko1.3611117113LSep 12 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311711113O. Mishchenko2.00811891WSep 12 · 22:25O. Mishchenko4.3391111153Y. Kryvorotko1.201157131LSep 11 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.3612811113O. Mishchenko3.001011971LSep 11 · 18:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113O. Mishchenko2.00581151LSep 11 · 17:25I. Demchenko1.5711134113O. Mishchenko2.258111171LSep 11 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5381111113O. Mishchenko2.38114391WSep 11 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50139781O. Mishchenko2.50111111113
I. Demchenko10
LSep 11 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.28111183I. Demchenko3.503540WSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492WSep 11 · 17:25I. Demchenko1.5711134113O. Mishchenko2.258111171LSep 11 · 15:55I. Demchenko3.001390O. Gavryshko1.361111113LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113
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