TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122031
Played Sep 13Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214511611––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 59.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 49–39 Pavel Plakushchyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 39 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chepurnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-39 in 88
Chepurnyi
Wrong
gap of 10 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1815 vs Plakushchyi 1646
Chepurnyi
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Plakushchyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Plakushchyi 40%
Chepurnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi -1 · Plakushchyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.61 / Plakushchyi 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13122031
Chepurnyi1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 167 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it93% 82 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it83% 129 of 156
Plakushchyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 82 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back17% 25 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChepurnyi3wins
AwayPlakushchyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi50%2 of 4
AwayPlakushchyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi4Plakushchyi6n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S2Chepurnyi3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S3Chepurnyi5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Chepurnyi3Plakushchyi5n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5Chepurnyi2Plakushchyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChepurnyiPlakushchyiC − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.8−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime562 / 945 vs 306 / 68959.5%44.4%562 / 945 vs 306 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.61/Plakushchyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 01:25A. Chepurnyi331111113P. Plakushchyi177370
WSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi49119711113P. Plakushchyi4171111662
LSep 4 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi32811761P. Plakushchyi4111811113
LAug 7 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi351141191P. Plakushchyi4013115113
WJul 19 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi5713111111113P. Plakushchyi5015139762
LJul 17 · 15:55A. Chepurnyi50111091192P. Plakushchyi47512118113
LJun 21 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi27571141P. Plakushchyi4111118113
LJun 21 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi44511117102P. Plakushchyi51118911123
LJun 15 · 02:25A. Chepurnyi2568110P. Plakushchyi351111133
LMay 24 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi31115691P. Plakushchyi3521111113
A. Chepurnyi10
LSep 13 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko1.401111123A. Chepurnyi2.7544100WSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.636720A. Chepurnyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 02:55O. Gavryshko1.83119781A. Chepurnyi1.8351111113WSep 13 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi2.257370A. Chepurnyi1.571111113LSep 12 · 23:25Y. Kryvorotko1.571111113A. Chepurnyi2.257960WSep 12 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.5391441182A. Chepurnyi2.381112115113WSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662LSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492LSep 11 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko1.441111113A. Chepurnyi2.635690WSep 11 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5381111113O. Mishchenko2.38114391
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 13 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.306590P. Plakushchyi3.401111113LSep 13 · 03:25O. Dukhovenko1.111111123P. Plakushchyi6.0094100WSep 13 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi3.4091111113Y. Kryvorotko1.30119571LSep 13 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi2.257370A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WSep 12 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311711113O. Mishchenko2.00811891LSep 12 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi2.38911441O. Gavryshko1.5311811113LSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662WSep 11 · 18:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113O. Mishchenko2.00581151LSep 11 · 16:55O. Gavryshko1.61711111113P. Plakushchyi2.2011811562LSep 11 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko1.111111113P. Plakushchyi6.008850
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