TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116927
Played Sep 13Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311711––––
Artem Chepurnyi
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 59.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 39–48 Artem Chepurnyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 39 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-48 in 87
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 9 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1630 vs Chepurnyi 1798
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Chepurnyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 50% vs Chepurnyi 70%
Chepurnyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi +1 · Chepurnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 2.25 / Chepurnyi 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13116927
Plakushchyi2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 81 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 81
Chepurnyi1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 165 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it93% 80 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it83% 127 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi8wins
AwayChepurnyi2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi85.7%6 of 7
AwayChepurnyi33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi7Chepurnyi3n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S2Plakushchyi8Chepurnyi2n = 10Plakushchyi took 8 of 10
S3Plakushchyi6Chepurnyi4n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S4Plakushchyi5Chepurnyi3n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5Plakushchyi2Chepurnyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiChepurnyiP − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.537.3+4.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 693 vs 559 / 94144.3%59.4%307 / 693 vs 559 / 941Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiPlakushchyi 2.25/Chepurnyi 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:25P. Plakushchyi4171111662A. Chepurnyi49119711113
WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi4111811113A. Chepurnyi32811761
WAug 7 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi4013115113A. Chepurnyi351141191
LJul 19 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi5015139762A. Chepurnyi5713111111113
WJul 17 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi47512118113A. Chepurnyi50111091192
WJun 21 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi4111118113A. Chepurnyi27571141
WJun 21 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi51118911123A. Chepurnyi44511117102
WJun 15 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi351111133A. Chepurnyi2568110
WMay 24 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi3521111113A. Chepurnyi31115691
WMay 24 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi341111123A. Chepurnyi2376100
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 13 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi3.4091111113Y. Kryvorotko1.30119571WSep 12 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311711113O. Mishchenko2.00811891LSep 12 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi2.38911441O. Gavryshko1.5311811113LSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662WSep 11 · 18:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113O. Mishchenko2.00581151LSep 11 · 16:55O. Gavryshko1.61711111113P. Plakushchyi2.2011811562LSep 11 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko1.111111113P. Plakushchyi6.008850WSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113LSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko2.10117115113P. Plakushchyi1.6761141172
A. Chepurnyi10
LSep 12 · 23:25Y. Kryvorotko1.571111113A. Chepurnyi2.257960WSep 12 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.5391441182A. Chepurnyi2.381112115113WSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662LSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492LSep 11 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko1.441111113A. Chepurnyi2.635690WSep 11 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5381111113O. Mishchenko2.38114391WSep 11 · 14:25O. Gavryshko1.836740A. Chepurnyi1.831111113WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113
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