TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13132114
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191168111513––
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr V Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 84 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Oleksandr V Kovalchuk at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 109–107 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 107 of their 216 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
109-107 in 216
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 216, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1492 vs Rubtsov 1443
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Rubtsov 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Rubtsov 30%
Kovalchuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Rubtsov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.80 / Rubtsov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13132114
Kovalchuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 53 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Rubtsov1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 98 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back14% 23 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back9% 11 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayRubtsov6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderRubtsov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayRubtsov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk6Rubtsov4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Rubtsov6n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Rubtsov3n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Rubtsov4n = 6Rubtsov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRubtsovK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.2−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 785 vs 294 / 76542%38.4%330 / 785 vs 294 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.80/Rubtsov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk47111177113E. Rubtsov3945111182
WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk331111113E. Rubtsov177460
LSep 3 · 18:25O. Kovalchuk301110541E. Rubtsov4281211113
LSep 2 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk4497111162E. Rubtsov46111158113
LAug 26 · 18:55O. Kovalchuk3882111162E. Rubtsov48111178113
LAug 25 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk2511680E. Rubtsov351311113
LAug 20 · 17:25O. Kovalchuk48111191162E. Rubtsov52138119113
LAug 19 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk42614111102E. Rubtsov521112116123
WAug 13 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk51111199113E. Rubtsov4679111182
WAug 13 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk361111143E. Rubtsov2558120
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113WSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 16 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.3311119113E. Rubtsov3.25551161WSep 16 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.67811511102E. Rubtsov2.10117112123WSep 10 · 04:25E. Rubtsov3.40111011123O. Mishchenko1.309128101LSep 10 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.571111123E. Rubtsov2.2593100WSep 10 · 24:25V. Panasenko1.4451190E. Rubtsov2.631113113LSep 9 · 23:25E. Rubtsov2.751181251P. Plakushchyi1.4061114113LSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460LSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050
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