TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131459
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115911116––
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 75.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 107–48 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 48 of their 155 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Mishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
107-48 in 155
Mishchenko
Correct
gap of 59 in 155, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1573 vs Rubtsov 1448
Mishchenko
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 40% vs Rubtsov 60%
Rubtsov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 40% vs Rubtsov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +2 · Rubtsov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 1.33 / Rubtsov 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Mishchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131459
Mishchenko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 115 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it88% 76 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it84% 98 of 117
Rubtsov3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 97 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 11 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko7wins
AwayRubtsov3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayRubtsov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko7Rubtsov3n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Mishchenko9Rubtsov1n = 10Mishchenko took 9 of 10
S3Mishchenko5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S4Mishchenko4Rubtsov2n = 6Mishchenko took 4 of 6
S5Mishchenko1Rubtsov2n = 3Rubtsov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoRubtsovM − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.633.1+6.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1060 vs 292 / 76246.8%38.3%496 / 1060 vs 292 / 762Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoMishchenko 1.33/Rubtsov 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 04:25O. Mishchenko399128101E. Rubtsov44111011123
LSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko46111111762E. Rubtsov48491311113
LSep 3 · 17:25O. Mishchenko4271171162E. Rubtsov43115115113
WSep 3 · 24:25O. Mishchenko4615911113E. Rubtsov341311281
WAug 26 · 15:25O. Mishchenko331111113E. Rubtsov208570
WAug 25 · 22:55O. Mishchenko351112123E. Rubtsov25510100
WAug 20 · 18:25O. Mishchenko331111113E. Rubtsov218850
WAug 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko331111113E. Rubtsov132740
WAug 18 · 23:55O. Mishchenko3611113113E. Rubtsov35791181
WAug 13 · 18:55O. Mishchenko531011912113E. Rubtsov48129111062
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 15 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi1.67881181O. Mishchenko2.1011116113LSep 15 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.831181111113O. Mishchenko1.8391161382LSep 14 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.2291111113O. Mishchenko4.00118271LSep 14 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.631181581A. Chepurnyi1.44131113113WSep 14 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.001111133P. Plakushchyi1.7389110LSep 13 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.255850O. Dukhovenko1.571111113WSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950LSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.636720A. Chepurnyi1.441111113LSep 13 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.50119811113O. Mishchenko2.5051111442
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131WSep 16 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.67811511102E. Rubtsov2.10117112123WSep 10 · 04:25E. Rubtsov3.40111011123O. Mishchenko1.309128101LSep 10 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.571111123E. Rubtsov2.2593100WSep 10 · 24:25V. Panasenko1.4451190E. Rubtsov2.631113113LSep 9 · 23:25E. Rubtsov2.751181251P. Plakushchyi1.4061114113LSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460LSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050
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