TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13132144
Played Sep 16Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131311115––––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 66.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 70–35 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 35 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-35 in 105
Plakushchyi
Correct
gap of 35 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1667 vs Kovalchuk 1507
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 50% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 2.50 / Kovalchuk 1.50
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13132144
Plakushchyi2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 85 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 84
Kovalchuk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 53 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi8wins
AwayKovalchuk2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi80%4 of 5
AwayKovalchuk20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Plakushchyi6Kovalchuk4n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S3Plakushchyi9Kovalchuk1n = 10Plakushchyi took 9 of 10
S4Plakushchyi5Kovalchuk2n = 7Plakushchyi took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiKovalchukP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.832.0+6.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 695 vs 330 / 78344.5%42.2%309 / 695 vs 330 / 783Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukPlakushchyi 2.50/Kovalchuk 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.8%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi331111113O. Kovalchuk228680
LSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi174760O. Kovalchuk331111113
WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi3961111113O. Kovalchuk34118781
WSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi539111111113O. Kovalchuk4811981372
WAug 26 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi331111113O. Kovalchuk182880
WAug 26 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi45121111113O. Kovalchuk321013181
WAug 24 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3961111113O. Kovalchuk24116341
WAug 20 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi4181111113O. Kovalchuk32119661
LAug 18 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi4411711782O. Kovalchuk46611711113
WJul 30 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi44111111113O. Kovalchuk31813641
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 16 · 03:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113V. Panasenko2.00691161WSep 16 · 02:29E. Rubtsov2.55511781P. Plakushchyi1.4511911113LSep 15 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi1.67881181O. Mishchenko2.1011116113LSep 14 · 03:55O. Dukhovenko1.101111113P. Plakushchyi6.507950WSep 14 · 02:55I. Demchenko1.577760P. Plakushchyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.001111133P. Plakushchyi1.7389110WSep 13 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi1.6112560P. Plakushchyi2.201411113WSep 13 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.306590P. Plakushchyi3.401111113LSep 13 · 03:25O. Dukhovenko1.111111123P. Plakushchyi6.0094100WSep 13 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi3.4091111113Y. Kryvorotko1.30119571
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113WSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460
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