TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122581
Played Sep 14Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711611––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:02 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Demchenko to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ivan Demchenko at 64.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 5–5 Pavel Plakushchyi Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Demchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1639 vs Plakushchyi 1681
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 20% vs Plakushchyi 60%
Plakushchyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 30% vs Plakushchyi 50%
Plakushchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko -4 · Plakushchyi -1
Demchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Demchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 1.57 / Plakushchyi 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Demchenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122581
Demchenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 43 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Plakushchyi2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 82 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back17% 25 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDemchenko5wins
AwayPlakushchyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayPlakushchyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko7Plakushchyi3n = 10Demchenko took 7 of 10
S2Demchenko8Plakushchyi2n = 10Demchenko took 8 of 10
S3Demchenko3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S4Demchenko3Plakushchyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Demchenko1Plakushchyi3n = 4Plakushchyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDemchenkoPlakushchyiD − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.535.8+3.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 155 vs 308 / 69243.9%44.5%68 / 155 vs 308 / 692Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.135.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DemchenkoDemchenko 1.57/Plakushchyi 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Demchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 02:55I. Demchenko207760P. Plakushchyi331111113
LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko51111191192P. Plakushchyi44361113113
WAug 20 · 03:25I. Demchenko331111113P. Plakushchyi165560
WAug 19 · 02:55I. Demchenko351113113P. Plakushchyi2241170
WAug 7 · 15:25I. Demchenko4311118133P. Plakushchyi343911111
LJul 12 · 22:55I. Demchenko30712651P. Plakushchyi43111011113
LJul 11 · 21:55I. Demchenko51128111192P. Plakushchyi531011138113
WJul 5 · 22:55I. Demchenko50111188123P. Plakushchyi41451111102
WJul 5 · 24:55I. Demchenko341211113P. Plakushchyi2210570
LMay 22 · 18:53I. Demchenko4891191182P. Plakushchyi50119118113
I. Demchenko10
LSep 14 · 24:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.505560LSep 13 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4051111123I. Demchenko2.751194101LSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950LSep 11 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.28111183I. Demchenko3.503540WSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492WSep 11 · 17:25I. Demchenko1.5711134113O. Mishchenko2.258111171LSep 11 · 15:55I. Demchenko3.001390O. Gavryshko1.361111113LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 14 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.001111133P. Plakushchyi1.7389110WSep 13 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi1.6112560P. Plakushchyi2.201411113WSep 13 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.306590P. Plakushchyi3.401111113LSep 13 · 03:25O. Dukhovenko1.111111123P. Plakushchyi6.0094100WSep 13 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi3.4091111113Y. Kryvorotko1.30119571LSep 13 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi2.257370A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WSep 12 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.7311711113O. Mishchenko2.00811891LSep 12 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi2.38911441O. Gavryshko1.5311811113LSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662WSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113
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