TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136851
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911611––––
Viktor Leonov
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 72.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 4–6 Viktor Leonov Maksym Karelov has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:26What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Leonov
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1085 vs Leonov 1425
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 340 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 20% vs Leonov 100%
Leonov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 20% vs Leonov 90%
Leonov
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov +1 · Leonov +5
Leonov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Leonov) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 3.40 / Leonov 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 76%
Edge (Leonov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13136851
Karelov3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 21 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Leonov1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 39 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov4wins
AwayLeonov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLeonov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov44.4%4 of 9
AwayLeonovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov9Leonov1n = 10Karelov took 9 of 10
S2Karelov5Leonov5n = 10split evenly
S3Karelov4Leonov6n = 10Leonov took 6 of 10
S4Karelov4Leonov6n = 10Leonov took 6 of 10
S5Karelov0Leonov4n = 4Leonov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovLeonovK − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.2+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 111 vs 83 / 13435.1%61.9%39 / 111 vs 83 / 134Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovKarelov 3.40/Leonov 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 14:05M. Karelov44111111832V. Leonov47751311113
LSep 2 · 17:35M. Karelov4211119562V. Leonov47771111113
LAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov351110861V. Leonov4171211113
WAug 19 · 18:05M. Karelov45131011113V. Leonov331112371
WAug 10 · 15:05M. Karelov3911511123V. Leonov333119101
LAug 5 · 18:05M. Karelov4011711111V. Leonov4691113133
LJul 28 · 19:35M. Karelov4613811952V. Leonov501111611113
LJul 14 · 13:05M. Karelov47411111292V. Leonov50116814113
WJul 7 · 13:05M. Karelov4011116123V. Leonov367811101
WJun 28 · 13:25M. Karelov4111118113V. Leonov29471171
M. Karelov10
WSep 16 · 16:05H. Buianover1.40111190M. Karelov2.751313113LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120LSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133
V. Leonov10
WSep 16 · 16:35V. Lukianevych1.73712111272V. Leonov2.001114110113WSep 16 · 14:35V. Reva3.509330V. Leonov1.281111113WSep 16 · 12:35A. Sydorenko2.631110861V. Leonov1.4441211113WSep 9 · 18:35V. Leonov1.531311113A. Sydorenko2.3811560WSep 9 · 17:05V. Leonov1.28126611113V. Reva3.50101111612WSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941WSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562
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