TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136660
Played Sep 16Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131113911––––
Maksym Karelov
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 68 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 70.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 13–6 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Buianover
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Buianover
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1307 vs Karelov 1061
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 80% vs Karelov 0%
Buianover
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 60% vs Karelov 20%
Buianover
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover +4 · Karelov -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Buianover)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 1.40 / Karelov 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Buianover)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136660
Buianover1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 27 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Karelov2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 21 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover7wins
AwayKarelov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover71.4%5 of 7
AwayKarelov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover7Karelov3n = 10Buianover took 7 of 10
S2Buianover5Karelov5n = 10split evenly
S3Buianover7Karelov3n = 10Buianover took 7 of 10
S4Buianover3Karelov4n = 7Karelov took 4 of 7
S5Buianover3Karelov1n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverKarelovB − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.1+1.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 385 vs 38 / 11040%34.6%154 / 385 vs 38 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverBuianover 1.40/Karelov 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover331111113M. Karelov196760
WSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover341211113M. Karelov2810990
WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover471131111113M. Karelov3911151392
LSep 1 · 13:05H. Buianover29751161M. Karelov3911116113
WAug 30 · 14:25H. Buianover48139114113M. Karelov48111171182
WAug 27 · 16:05H. Buianover3621211113M. Karelov371110971
WAug 12 · 17:05H. Buianover331111113M. Karelov279990
WAug 10 · 17:35H. Buianover511011611133M. Karelov46124118112
LAug 9 · 15:05H. Buianover3811561152M. Karelov48611119113
LAug 5 · 19:35H. Buianover32115791M. Karelov4071111113
H. Buianover10
LSep 16 · 17:05A. Sydorenko1.28122811113H. Buianover3.50101111942WSep 16 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.50711591H. Buianover2.5011411113WSep 16 · 13:35H. Buianover2.001111113V. Reva1.736880WSep 13 · 18:35V. Melnyk4.3371140H. Buianover1.201113113WSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 16:35H. Buianover1.6777111182V. Kruglyak2.10111139113WSep 13 · 15:05H. Buianover1.531111113S. Paksiutov2.384650LSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113WSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192
M. Karelov10
LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120LSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113
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