TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122289
Played Sep 13Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411711611––––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kruglyak to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Volodymyr Kruglyak at 65.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 1–5 Volodymyr Kruglyak Maksym Karelov has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kruglyak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Kruglyak
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1161 vs Kruglyak 1145
Karelov
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 40% vs Kruglyak 60%
Kruglyak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 30% vs Kruglyak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov +1 · Kruglyak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kruglyak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.63 / Kruglyak 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kruglyak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122289
Karelov2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 21 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Kruglyak1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKarelov1wins
AwayKruglyak5wins
Kruglyak leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov33.3%1 of 3
AwayKruglyak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov3Kruglyak3n = 6split evenly
S2Karelov2Kruglyak4n = 6Kruglyak took 4 of 6
S3Karelov1Kruglyak5n = 6Kruglyak took 5 of 6
S4Karelov0Kruglyak3n = 3Kruglyak took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKarelovKruglyakKarelov − KruglyakBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match30.235.3−5.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 104 vs 79 / 25336.5%31.2%38 / 104 vs 79 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.434.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KruglyakKarelov 2.63/Kruglyak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Kruglyak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2410950V. Kruglyak341211113
LAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov361211761V. Kruglyak4514911113
LJul 27 · 15:05M. Karelov2451180V. Kruglyak351113113
LJul 13 · 19:35M. Karelov27112591V. Kruglyak3961111113
LJul 7 · 18:05M. Karelov3711610101V. Kruglyak4051112123
WJun 28 · 18:55M. Karelov331111113V. Kruglyak197570
M. Karelov10
LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LAug 9 · 14:35A. Sydorenko1.1791111113V. Kruglyak4.50115581
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