TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392745
Played Aug 10Finished
Vadim Reva
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101311611110––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Reva above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-0
Point 74 set 4, 11-0 — our read held Vadim Reva at 64.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Reva 63–12 Volodymyr Kruglyak Volodymyr Kruglyak has won 12 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Reva
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-12 in 75
Reva
Correct
gap of 51 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reva 1366 vs Kruglyak 1145
Reva
Correct
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reva 60% vs Kruglyak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reva 60% vs Kruglyak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reva -1 · Kruglyak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Reva) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReva 1.20 / Kruglyak 4.33
Signal prob.94% / 6%
Edge (Reva)+15.8pp
Setka Cup · #12392745
Reva1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 57 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Kruglyak4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 29 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReva9wins
AwayKruglyak1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderReva leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReva85.7%6 of 7
AwayKruglyak0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reva7Kruglyak3n = 10Reva took 7 of 10
S2Reva9Kruglyak1n = 10Reva took 9 of 10
S3Reva7Kruglyak3n = 10Reva took 7 of 10
S4Reva6Kruglyak0n = 6Reva took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRevaKruglyakR − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.530.6+8.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRevaKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 365 vs 81 / 26755.1%30.3%201 / 365 vs 81 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.134.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevaReva 1.20/Kruglyak 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
94.1%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva4212136113V. Kruglyak3210111101
WAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva331111113V. Kruglyak218850
WJul 27 · 17:35V. Reva331111113V. Kruglyak186570
WJul 13 · 13:35V. Reva4181111113V. Kruglyak32117591
WJul 7 · 19:05V. Reva4461112153V. Kruglyak3611210131
LJun 28 · 16:55V. Reva4911881392V. Kruglyak539111111113
WJun 15 · 19:05V. Reva4111116133V. Kruglyak368611111
WJun 4 · 14:35V. Reva341111123V. Kruglyak2468100
WMay 31 · 17:05V. Reva331111113V. Kruglyak203980
WMay 20 · 19:05V. Reva45101111133V. Kruglyak341283111
V. Reva10
WSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740LSep 9 · 17:05V. Leonov1.28126611113V. Reva3.50101111612LSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.67111112113V. Reva2.10381451LSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113WSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192LSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LAug 9 · 14:35A. Sydorenko1.1791111113V. Kruglyak4.50115581WAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113
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