TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384799
Played Aug 9Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214119711611––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kruglyak to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 81 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Volodymyr Kruglyak at 59.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 1–3 Volodymyr Kruglyak Maksym Karelov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kruglyak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kruglyak
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1174 vs Kruglyak 1136
Karelov
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 80% vs Kruglyak 40%
Karelov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 40% vs Kruglyak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov +3 · Kruglyak -1
Karelov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kruglyak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.20 / Kruglyak 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kruglyak)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384799
Karelov2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 9 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back14% 2 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Kruglyak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKarelov1wins
AwayKruglyak3wins
Kruglyak leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov33.3%1 of 3
AwayKruglyakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov3Kruglyak1n = 4Karelov took 3 of 4
S2Karelov1Kruglyak3n = 4Kruglyak took 3 of 4
S3Karelov1Kruglyak3n = 4Kruglyak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKarelovKruglyakKarelov − KruglyakBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match30.233.2−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 62 vs 80 / 26440.3%30.3%25 / 62 vs 80 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.81.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.834.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KruglyakKarelov 2.20/Kruglyak 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kruglyak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 27 · 15:05M. Karelov2451180V. Kruglyak351113113
LJul 13 · 19:35M. Karelov27112591V. Kruglyak3961111113
LJul 7 · 18:05M. Karelov3711610101V. Kruglyak4051112123
WJun 28 · 18:55M. Karelov331111113V. Kruglyak197570
M. Karelov10
LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LAug 9 · 14:35A. Sydorenko1.1791111113V. Kruglyak4.50115581WAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113
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