TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100707
Played Sep 9Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119119––––
Maksym Karelov
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 57.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 11–6 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Buianover
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Buianover
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1220 vs Karelov 1164
Buianover
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 20% vs Karelov 40%
Karelov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 30% vs Karelov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover -3 · Karelov -1
Buianover
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Buianover) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buianover form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 1.67 / Karelov 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Buianover)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100707
Buianover1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Karelov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover7wins
AwayKarelov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover71.4%5 of 7
AwayKarelov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover7Karelov3n = 10Buianover took 7 of 10
S2Buianover4Karelov6n = 10Karelov took 6 of 10
S3Buianover7Karelov3n = 10Buianover took 7 of 10
S4Buianover4Karelov4n = 8split evenly
S5Buianover3Karelov1n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverKarelovB − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.6+1.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 377 vs 37 / 10239.3%36.3%148 / 377 vs 37 / 102Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverBuianover 1.67/Karelov 2.10
Hit
What we said
59.4%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Buianover won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover—1131111113M. Karelov—11151392
LSep 1 · 13:05H. Buianover—751161M. Karelov—11116113
WAug 30 · 14:25H. Buianover—139114113M. Karelov—111171182
WAug 27 · 16:05H. Buianover—21211113M. Karelov—1110971
WAug 12 · 17:05H. Buianover—1111113M. Karelov—9990
WAug 10 · 17:35H. Buianover—1011611133M. Karelov—124118112
LAug 9 · 15:05H. Buianover—11561152M. Karelov—611119113
LAug 5 · 19:35H. Buianover—115791M. Karelov—71111113
WJul 28 · 15:35H. Buianover—1111123M. Karelov—98100
WJul 27 · 19:05H. Buianover—11911113M. Karelov—711611
H. Buianover10
LSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192LSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941LSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123LSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113
M. Karelov10
LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581
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