TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100767
Played Sep 9Finished
Viktor Leonov
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7115111311118113
Maksym Karelov
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 91 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 72.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 5–4 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1333 vs Karelov 1160
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 60% vs Karelov 20%
Leonov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 50% vs Karelov 30%
Leonov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov -1 · Karelov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Leonov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 1.36 / Karelov 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Leonov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100767
Leonov1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Karelov3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLeonov5wins
AwayKarelov4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderLeonov leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKarelov50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonov1Karelov8n = 9Karelov took 8 of 9
S2Leonov5Karelov4n = 9Leonov took 5 of 9
S3Leonov5Karelov4n = 9Leonov took 5 of 9
S4Leonov5Karelov4n = 9Leonov took 5 of 9
S5Leonov3Karelov0n = 3Leonov took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricLeonovKarelovL − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set18−7of 9Avg pointsper match40.641.7−1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 127 vs 36 / 9959.8%36.4%76 / 127 vs 36 / 99Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovLeonov 1.36/Karelov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov—771111113M. Karelov—11119562
WAug 30 · 15:25V. Leonov—71211113M. Karelov—1110861
LAug 19 · 18:05V. Leonov—1112371M. Karelov—131011113
LAug 10 · 15:05V. Leonov—3119101M. Karelov—11511123
WAug 5 · 18:05V. Leonov—91113133M. Karelov—11711111
WJul 28 · 19:35V. Leonov—1111611113M. Karelov—13811952
WJul 14 · 13:05V. Leonov—116814113M. Karelov—411111292
LJul 7 · 13:05V. Leonov—7811101M. Karelov—11116123
LJun 28 · 13:25V. Leonov—471171M. Karelov—11118113
V. Leonov10
LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113LAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover5.00311118113V. Leonov1.1411861172WAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva3.4061111882V. Leonov1.30119811113LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100WAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.