TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055195
Played Sep 1Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711411––––
Andrii Sydorenko 1979
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Sydorenko 1979 to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Andrii Sydorenko 1979 below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 57 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Andrii Sydorenko 1979 at 77.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 3–13 Andrii Sydorenko 1979 Maksym Karelov has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Sydorenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Sydorenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1135 vs Sydorenko 1407
Sydorenko
Correct
both rated, 272 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 40% vs Sydorenko 80%
Sydorenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 20% vs Sydorenko 80%
Sydorenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -1 · Sydorenko +4
Sydorenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Sydorenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 3.50 / Sydorenko 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Sydorenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055195
Karelov3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Sydorenko1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 93 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it81% 60 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov1wins
AwaySydorenko9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSydorenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov20%1 of 5
AwaySydorenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov5Sydorenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Karelov2Sydorenko8n = 10Sydorenko took 8 of 10
S3Karelov3Sydorenko7n = 10Sydorenko took 7 of 10
S4Karelov3Sydorenko4n = 7Sydorenko took 4 of 7
S5Karelov0Sydorenko4n = 4Sydorenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovSydorenkoK − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.840.5−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovSydorenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 91 vs 202 / 31236.3%64.7%33 / 91 vs 202 / 312Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SydorenkoKarelov 3.50/Sydorenko 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Sydorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov—11740A. Sydorenko—1311113
LAug 27 · 14:05M. Karelov—8960A. Sydorenko—1111113
LAug 19 · 13:05M. Karelov—117631A. Sydorenko—61111113
LAug 12 · 17:33M. Karelov—141110962A. Sydorenko—1281211113
LAug 12 · 12:35M. Karelov—11118962A. Sydorenko—671111113
LAug 9 · 13:35M. Karelov—9101141A. Sydorenko—11122113
LAug 5 · 13:05M. Karelov—89111162A. Sydorenko—111138113
LJul 28 · 17:35M. Karelov—86120A. Sydorenko—1111143
WJul 27 · 17:05M. Karelov—11711113A. Sydorenko—811481
LJul 16 · 18:35M. Karelov—142911102A. Sydorenko—1211115123
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
A. Sydorenko10
LSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113WSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113WSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272LSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192WSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123WSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113WSep 1 · 19:05I. Chernyshov3.75115761A. Sydorenko1.2571111113LSep 1 · 18:05H. Buianover3.5011711113A. Sydorenko1.28211661WSep 1 · 14:35V. Reva2.00145731A. Sydorenko1.73121111113WSep 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.6381171142A. Sydorenko1.44119116113
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