TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055418
Played Sep 1Finished
Valerii Lukianevych
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111917115118––
Maksym Karelov
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 19-17
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 87 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 65.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 9–6 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1274 vs Karelov 1159
Lukianevych
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 40% vs Karelov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 30% vs Karelov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych +1 · Karelov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Lukianevych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 1.50 / Karelov 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Lukianevych)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13055418
Lukianevych1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 70 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Karelov2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukianevych7wins
AwayKarelov3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukianevych75%3 of 4
AwayKarelov33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukianevych4Karelov6n = 10Karelov took 6 of 10
S2Lukianevych8Karelov2n = 10Lukianevych took 8 of 10
S3Lukianevych6Karelov4n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10
S4Lukianevych7Karelov1n = 8Lukianevych took 7 of 8
S5Lukianevych2Karelov3n = 5Karelov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukianevychKarelovL − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.439.3+3.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 395 vs 34 / 9249.9%37%197 / 395 vs 34 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychLukianevych 1.50/Karelov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 16:25V. Lukianevych—11115782M. Karelov—891111113
WAug 27 · 13:05V. Lukianevych—81111113M. Karelov—117621
WAug 19 · 14:05V. Lukianevych—811712113M. Karelov—118111072
LAug 12 · 14:05V. Lukianevych—510111172M. Karelov—111259113
WAug 10 · 18:35V. Lukianevych—571111113M. Karelov—11118552
WAug 5 · 14:05V. Lukianevych—1116113M. Karelov—61470
LJul 28 · 14:35V. Lukianevych—611811112M. Karelov—118118133
WJul 27 · 16:05V. Lukianevych—51214113M. Karelov—11101281
WJul 16 · 14:05V. Lukianevych—1211113M. Karelov—10880
WJul 14 · 19:35V. Lukianevych—11119113M. Karelov—991181
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113LSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272WSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych1.301111123I. Chernyshov3.4077100LSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133WSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980LSep 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.6381171142A. Sydorenko1.44119116113
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
Upcoming Matches
V. Lukianevych
M. Karelov
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.