TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061061
Played Sep 2Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113111151113119
Maksym Karelov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 57.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 10–6 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Buianover
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Buianover
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1239 vs Karelov 1158
Buianover
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 60% vs Karelov 40%
Buianover
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 60% vs Karelov 40%
Buianover
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover -2 · Karelov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Buianover) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 1.73 / Karelov 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Buianover)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061061
Buianover1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 29 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Karelov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover6wins
AwayKarelov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover66.7%4 of 6
AwayKarelov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover6Karelov4n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S2Buianover5Karelov5n = 10split evenly
S3Buianover6Karelov4n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S4Buianover4Karelov4n = 8split evenly
S5Buianover2Karelov1n = 3Buianover took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverKarelovB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.737.4−0.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 373 vs 35 / 9539.4%36.8%147 / 373 vs 35 / 95Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverBuianover 1.73/Karelov 2.00
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Buianover won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 13:05H. Buianover—751161M. Karelov—11116113
WAug 30 · 14:25H. Buianover—139114113M. Karelov—111171182
WAug 27 · 16:05H. Buianover—21211113M. Karelov—1110971
WAug 12 · 17:05H. Buianover—1111113M. Karelov—9990
WAug 10 · 17:35H. Buianover—1011611133M. Karelov—124118112
LAug 9 · 15:05H. Buianover—11561152M. Karelov—611119113
LAug 5 · 19:35H. Buianover—115791M. Karelov—71111113
WJul 28 · 15:35H. Buianover—1111123M. Karelov—98100
WJul 27 · 19:05H. Buianover—11911113M. Karelov—711611
LJul 16 · 15:35H. Buianover—211831M. Karelov—11411113
H. Buianover10
WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123LSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113WSep 1 · 18:05H. Buianover3.5011711113A. Sydorenko1.28211661WSep 1 · 16:05I. Chernyshov2.632770H. Buianover1.441111113LSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980LSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
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