TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061247
Played Sep 2Finished
Vadim Reva
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117811211––
Maksym Karelov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:14 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Reva above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 69 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Vadim Reva at 67.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Reva 11–7 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Reva
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Reva
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reva 1314 vs Karelov 1150
Reva
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reva 40% vs Karelov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reva 40% vs Karelov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reva -2 · Karelov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Reva)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reva form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReva 1.44 / Karelov 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Reva)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061247
Reva1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite71% won 68 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it84% 48 of 57
Karelov2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReva6wins
AwayKarelov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderReva leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReva57.1%4 of 7
AwayKarelov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reva7Karelov3n = 10Reva took 7 of 10
S2Reva6Karelov4n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S3Reva6Karelov4n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S4Reva4Karelov3n = 7Reva took 4 of 7
S5Reva1Karelov3n = 4Karelov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRevaKarelovR − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.036.9+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRevaKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 375 vs 34 / 9356%36.6%210 / 375 vs 34 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevaReva 1.44/Karelov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 17:35V. Reva—7560M. Karelov—1111113
WAug 30 · 20:25V. Reva—10111111113M. Karelov—12613952
WAug 27 · 19:35V. Reva—1311113M. Karelov—11780
LAug 19 · 19:35V. Reva—111110572M. Karelov—571211113
WAug 12 · 15:35V. Reva—11149113M. Karelov—3121151
LAug 10 · 13:05V. Reva—121011892M. Karelov—1012811113
LAug 9 · 16:05V. Reva—11812252M. Karelov—4111011113
WAug 5 · 16:05V. Reva—81111113M. Karelov—117771
WJul 27 · 13:35V. Reva—11711113M. Karelov—611771
WJul 16 · 17:05V. Reva—1311113M. Karelov—11780
V. Reva10
LSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113WSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192LSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113LSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560WSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133LSep 1 · 14:35V. Reva2.00145731A. Sydorenko1.73121111113WSep 1 · 13:35I. Chernyshov4.50115531V. Reva1.1741111113
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
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