TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055226
Played Sep 1Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117115611116––
Hennadii Buianover
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Hennadii Buianover below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 63.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 5–10 Hennadii Buianover Maksym Karelov has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Buianover
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Buianover
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1139 vs Buianover 1247
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 20% vs Buianover 80%
Buianover
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 10% vs Buianover 60%
Buianover
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -2 · Buianover +3
Buianover
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Buianover)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buianover form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.25 / Buianover 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Buianover)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055226
Karelov2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Buianover1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 28 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov3wins
AwayBuianover7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov25%1 of 4
AwayBuianover66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov4Buianover6n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S2Karelov4Buianover6n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S3Karelov5Buianover5n = 10split evenly
S4Karelov3Buianover5n = 8Buianover took 5 of 8
S5Karelov1Buianover3n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovBuianoverK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.2−0.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovBuianoverBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 88 vs 146 / 36836.4%39.7%32 / 88 vs 146 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverKarelov 2.25/Buianover 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 14:25M. Karelov—111171182H. Buianover—139114113
LAug 27 · 16:05M. Karelov—1110971H. Buianover—21211113
LAug 12 · 17:05M. Karelov—9990H. Buianover—1111113
LAug 10 · 17:35M. Karelov—124118112H. Buianover—1011611133
WAug 9 · 15:05M. Karelov—611119113H. Buianover—11561152
WAug 5 · 19:35M. Karelov—71111113H. Buianover—115791
LJul 28 · 15:35M. Karelov—98100H. Buianover—1111123
LJul 27 · 19:05M. Karelov—711611H. Buianover—11911113
WJul 16 · 15:35M. Karelov—11411113H. Buianover—211831
LJul 14 · 18:05M. Karelov—118119152H. Buianover—811711173
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153
H. Buianover10
WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123LSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113WSep 1 · 18:05H. Buianover3.5011711113A. Sydorenko1.28211661WSep 1 · 16:05I. Chernyshov2.632770H. Buianover1.441111113LSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980
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