TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13063198
Played Sep 2Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012411––––
Valerii Lukianevych
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Valerii Lukianevych below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 55 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 65.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 6–11 Valerii Lukianevych Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1158 vs Lukianevych 1306
Lukianevych
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 40% vs Lukianevych 80%
Lukianevych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 40% vs Lukianevych 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov +1 · Lukianevych +3
Lukianevych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Lukianevych) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.63 / Lukianevych 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Lukianevych)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13063198
Karelov2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Lukianevych1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 73 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov3wins
AwayLukianevych7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov28.6%2 of 7
AwayLukianevych66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov7Lukianevych3n = 10Karelov took 7 of 10
S2Karelov2Lukianevych8n = 10Lukianevych took 8 of 10
S3Karelov3Lukianevych7n = 10Lukianevych took 7 of 10
S4Karelov1Lukianevych7n = 8Lukianevych took 7 of 8
S5Karelov3Lukianevych2n = 5Karelov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovLukianevychK − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.242.8−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovLukianevychBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 95 vs 199 / 39636.8%50.3%35 / 95 vs 199 / 396Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychKarelov 2.63/Lukianevych 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov—71040V. Lukianevych—1112113
LSep 1 · 18:35M. Karelov—1117581V. Lukianevych—51911113
WAug 30 · 16:25M. Karelov—891111113V. Lukianevych—11115782
LAug 27 · 13:05M. Karelov—117621V. Lukianevych—81111113
LAug 19 · 14:05M. Karelov—118111072V. Lukianevych—811712113
WAug 12 · 14:05M. Karelov—111259113V. Lukianevych—510111172
LAug 10 · 18:35M. Karelov—11118552V. Lukianevych—571111113
LAug 5 · 14:05M. Karelov—61470V. Lukianevych—1116113
WJul 28 · 14:35M. Karelov—118118133V. Lukianevych—611811112
LJul 27 · 16:05M. Karelov—11101281V. Lukianevych—51214113
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113LSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272WSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych1.301111123I. Chernyshov3.4077100LSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133WSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980LSep 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.6381171142A. Sydorenko1.44119116113
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