TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100678
Played Sep 9Finished
Viktor Leonov
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111311311711––
Valerii Lukianevych
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Valerii Lukianevych below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 62.4%
76 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 14–28 Valerii Lukianevych Viktor Leonov has won 14 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:19What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-28 in 42
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 14 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1346 vs Lukianevych 1313
Leonov
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 60% vs Lukianevych 80%
Lukianevych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 50% vs Lukianevych 70%
Lukianevych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov +2 · Lukianevych +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Lukianevych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 2.38 / Lukianevych 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Lukianevych)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100678
Leonov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 9 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Lukianevych1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 75 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonov1wins
AwayLukianevych9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonov33.3%1 of 3
AwayLukianevych100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonov3Lukianevych7n = 10Lukianevych took 7 of 10
S2Leonov4Lukianevych6n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10
S3Leonov4Lukianevych6n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10
S4Leonov1Lukianevych5n = 6Lukianevych took 5 of 6
S5Leonov0Lukianevych3n = 3Lukianevych took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonovLukianevychLeonov − LukianevychBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.440.4−7.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovLukianevychBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 126 vs 198 / 39660.3%50%76 / 126 vs 198 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychLeonov 2.38/Lukianevych 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov—61470V. Lukianevych—1116113
LAug 30 · 13:25V. Leonov—8310V. Lukianevych—1111113
LAug 19 · 12:35V. Leonov—81161252V. Lukianevych—1151110113
LAug 10 · 17:05V. Leonov—119111112V. Lukianevych—511813113
LAug 5 · 12:35V. Leonov—91480V. Lukianevych—1116113
LJul 28 · 18:05V. Leonov—119651V. Lukianevych—41111113
LJul 23 · 12:35V. Leonov—61111672V. Lukianevych—119711113
LJul 14 · 17:35V. Leonov—911881V. Lukianevych—11811113
WJul 7 · 18:35V. Leonov—1111153V. Lukianevych—89130
LJun 14 · 13:25V. Leonov—781181V. Lukianevych—11119113
V. Leonov10
WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113LAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover5.00311118113V. Leonov1.1411861172WAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva3.4061111882V. Leonov1.30119811113LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100WAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113LAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych1.801111113V. Leonov1.918310
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113LSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272WSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych1.301111123I. Chernyshov3.4077100LSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133WSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980WAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych1.801111113V. Leonov1.918310
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