TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044636
Played Aug 30Finished
Vadim Reva
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611119118811811
Viktor Leonov
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Reva above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 71.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Reva 7–25 Viktor Leonov Vadim Reva has won 7 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-25 in 32
Leonov
Correct
gap of 18 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reva 1350 vs Leonov 1335
Reva
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reva 40% vs Leonov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reva 60% vs Leonov 40%
Reva
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Reva -1 · Leonov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Leonov) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReva 3.40 / Leonov 1.30
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Leonov)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13044636
Reva3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 44 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back35% 17 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Leonov1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReva3wins
AwayLeonov7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLeonov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReva50%2 of 4
AwayLeonov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reva4Leonov6n = 10Leonov took 6 of 10
S2Reva3Leonov7n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S3Reva3Leonov7n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S4Reva1Leonov4n = 5Leonov took 4 of 5
S5Reva2Leonov1n = 3Reva took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRevaLeonovR − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.337.2−6.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRevaLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 370 vs 73 / 12156.2%60.3%208 / 370 vs 73 / 121Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovReva 3.40/Leonov 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.1%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva—61111882V. Leonov—119811113
LAug 19 · 14:35V. Reva—1171081V. Leonov—51112113
LAug 10 · 16:05V. Reva—7840V. Leonov—1111113
LAug 5 · 19:05V. Reva—5530V. Leonov—1111113
WJul 28 · 16:05V. Reva—811811113V. Leonov—11511982
LJul 14 · 15:05V. Reva—1195101V. Leonov—71111123
LJul 7 · 15:05V. Reva—6620V. Leonov—1111113
WJun 28 · 17:55V. Reva—1111113V. Leonov—6970
WJun 14 · 17:55V. Reva—115117113V. Leonov—71181182
LMar 22 · 15:35V. Reva—6540V. Leonov—1111103
V. Reva10
LSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113WSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192LSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113LSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560WSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133LSep 1 · 14:35V. Reva2.00145731A. Sydorenko1.73121111113
V. Leonov10
LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113LAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover5.00311118113V. Leonov1.1411861172LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100WAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113LAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych1.801111113V. Leonov1.918310
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