TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044555
Played Aug 30Finished
Valerii Lukianevych
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118113111––––
Viktor Leonov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 45 set 3, 11-1 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 26–14 Viktor Leonov Viktor Leonov has won 14 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-14 in 40
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 12 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1331 vs Leonov 1356
Leonov
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 80% vs Leonov 40%
Lukianevych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 70% vs Leonov 50%
Lukianevych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych -1 · Leonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lukianevych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 1.80 / Leonov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lukianevych)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13044555
Lukianevych1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 69 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 48 of 58
Leonov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 9 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukianevych8wins
AwayLeonov2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukianevych100%6 of 6
AwayLeonov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukianevych6Leonov4n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10
S2Lukianevych6Leonov4n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10
S3Lukianevych4Leonov6n = 10Leonov took 6 of 10
S4Lukianevych6Leonov2n = 8Lukianevych took 6 of 8
S5Lukianevych3Leonov0n = 3Lukianevych took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukianevychLeonovLukianevych − LeonovBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.536.9+4.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 386 vs 71 / 11650.3%61.2%194 / 386 vs 71 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychLukianevych 1.80/Leonov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 12:35V. Lukianevych—1151110113V. Leonov—81161252
WAug 10 · 17:05V. Lukianevych—511813113V. Leonov—119111112
WAug 5 · 12:35V. Lukianevych—1116113V. Leonov—91480
WJul 28 · 18:05V. Lukianevych—41111113V. Leonov—119651
WJul 23 · 12:35V. Lukianevych—119711113V. Leonov—61111672
WJul 14 · 17:35V. Lukianevych—11811113V. Leonov—911881
LJul 7 · 18:35V. Lukianevych—89130V. Leonov—1111153
WJun 14 · 13:25V. Lukianevych—11119113V. Leonov—781181
WApr 26 · 13:25V. Lukianevych—11119113V. Leonov—591181
LApr 5 · 18:05V. Lukianevych—91110101V. Leonov—11612123
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113LSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272WSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych1.301111123I. Chernyshov3.4077100LSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133WSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980
V. Leonov10
LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113LAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover5.00311118113V. Leonov1.1411861172WAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva3.4061111882V. Leonov1.30119811113LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100WAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113
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